系统可靠度置信下限估计方法及其应用

发布时间：2018-03-21 00:05

  本文选题：系统可靠度　切入点：置信下限　出处：《强激光与粒子束》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对寿命服从指数分布的随机截尾样本,研究单元及系统可靠度的评估方法,给出了系统可靠度置信下限估计方法,该方法同样适用于工程中常见的定时截尾样本与定数截尾样本的系统可靠度评估问题。首先通过分位数填充算法将随机截尾数据补充成虚拟完全样本,然后基于信仰推断,给出系统内每个单元失效率的信仰分布,最后根据指数分布的特点,从失效率角度出发,采用蒙特卡罗法对单元失效率进行随机抽样,结合系统可靠性模型得到系统失效率的分布,在给定置信水平下即可得到系统失效率上限,进而得到工程上特别关注的系统可靠度置信下限。
[Abstract]:Based on the random censored samples of exponential distribution of service life, the method of estimating the confidence lower limit of system reliability is given, and the evaluation method of unit and system reliability is given. This method can also be used to evaluate the system reliability of timing truncated samples and deterministic truncated samples. Firstly, random truncated data is supplemented into virtual complete samples by quantile filling algorithm, and then based on belief inference. The belief distribution of each unit failure rate in the system is given. Finally, according to the characteristics of exponential distribution, the Monte Carlo method is used to random sampling the unit failure rate from the point of view of failure rate. Combined with the system reliability model, the distribution of the system failure rate can be obtained, and the upper limit of the system failure rate can be obtained under the given confidence level, and then the lower confidence limit of the system reliability which is of special concern in engineering can be obtained.
【作者单位】： 中国原子能科学研究院同位素研究所;北京机电工程总体设计部;
【分类号】：O213
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本文编号：1641388