基于灰信息的运载火箭方案优选与研制费用估算模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 07:56

本文选题：灰信息背景　切入点：技术方案筛选　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪是太空经济时代,运载火箭是发展空间科学的基础,在航天项目中一直扮演重要角色。在新的时代背景下,市场对运载火箭的经济性、技术先进性提出了更高要求。研究表明运载火箭方案阶段决定了整个研制方案70%的成本,因此在运载火箭方案设计阶段加强成本的预测,强化设计方案的优选是运载火箭成本、技术、市场竞争力的重要保障。而运载火箭研制技术难度大,研制周期长,影响因素多,不确定性高,呈现少数据、贫信息特征,这些都给运载火箭研制方案的费用预测与筛选工作带来极大挑战。本论文以技术、成本、经济一体化为逻辑主线,构建灰信息背景下的运载火箭研制方案费用测算与方案筛选模型。首先分析我国运载火箭研制费用测算与方案选择现状及不足,进而从技术维度入手,构造基于任务要求的运载火箭技术方案“灰靶屋”筛选模型,解决技术维度的方案初选问题;设计运载火箭研制费用关键驱动因子极大熵筛选模型,构造运载火箭研制费用灰色测算模型,测算研制成本;最后搭建“技术-成本-市场”一体化视角下研制方案“灰色关联筛选屋”模型,为运载火箭研制方案的综合筛选提供宝贵的理论参考和技术支持,相关研究工作可归纳如下:(1)基于任务要求的运载火箭技术方案“灰靶屋”筛选模型设计。结合经典的技术方案QFD评选方法和多目标加权灰靶决策模型,构建基于任务要求的运载火箭技术方案“灰靶屋”评价模型进行运载火箭技术方案评估与筛选。(2)运载火箭研制费用关键驱动因子极大熵识别模型研究。本文从驱动因子的权重配置角度,提出了一种驱动比重最大化的运载火箭研制费用驱动因子极大熵筛选模型,设计两类情景下的运载火箭关键费用驱动因子筛选方法。(3)运载火箭研制费用分数阶灰色测算模型FOGM(0,N)和FOOGM(1,1)构建。针对少量研制费用横截面数据,定义样本相似度,并依据相似度对原始数据排序,规定与待预测对象越相似的样本数据对FOGM(0,N)模型解的影响越敏感,进而建立关键费用驱动因子的分数阶累加的FOGM(0,N)模型,预测运载火箭研制费用。针对运载火箭研制费用体现时间序列特征的问题,利用新信息优先原理,构建FGOM(1,1)模型,实现对研制费用时间序列数据最少信息的最大挖掘。(4)“技术-成本-市场”一体化视角的运载火箭研制方案灰色加权关联筛选模型研究。针对目前运载火箭研制方案筛选工作缺乏系统工程视角的问题,本文综合考虑技术、成本、市场,搭建一体化视角下的灰色关联筛选屋框架,构建技术竞争力指数、成本竞争力指数、市场竞争力指数的测算模型。进而集结运载火箭研制和市场专家经验,构建“技术-成本-市场”指标权重极大熵分配模型,权衡技术、成本、市场三个维度。最后建立“技术-成本-市场”一体化视角的研制方案灰色加权关联筛选模型,实现对运载火箭研制方案的综合筛选。
[Abstract]:Twenty-first Century is the space rocket economy, is the basis for the development of space science, has played an important role in the aerospace project. Under the background of new era, economy of market of rocket and put forward higher requirements for advanced technology. The results show that the rocket method determines the development plan of 70% of the cost therefore to strengthen the cost forecast in the rocket design stage, strengthening design is the launch vehicle cost, technology, market competitiveness is an important guarantee. While the rocket developed technical difficulty, long development cycle, multi factors, high uncertainty, has less data, poor information characteristics, which brings a tremendous challenge to predict these are to launch vehicle development program costs and screening work. In this paper, the cost of economic integration as a logical clue, constructing the grey information under the background of carrier rocket design fee With the calculation and program selection model. Firstly, analysis of China's rocket research measure and scheme selection cost and shortage, and then from the perspective of construction technology, rocket technology solutions "task based on grey house screening model, solve the technical dimension of the early selection scheme; design of rocket development costs of the key driving factors greatly entropy screening model, structure of rocket development cost grey calculation model, estimates the cost of development; finally," from the perspective of technology cost market integration development plan "grey screening house" model, to provide theoretical reference and technical support for the development of valuable rocket integrated screening program, related research work can be summarized as follows: (1) rocket technology program "the task of grey target house screening model design based on technical scheme. Combining with the classic QFD selection method and multicast Standard weighted grey target decision model, based on the mission requirements of carrier rocket technology program "grey house" evaluation model of launch vehicle technology project evaluation and selection. (2) the rocket development cost of the key factors to drive maximum entropy recognition model. From the angle of weight allocation driving factors, proposed a rocket development cost driving proportion maximum driving factor of maximum entropy model for screening, the cost of rocket key design two scenarios driving factor screening method. (3) the rocket development cost fractional grey calculation model FOGM (0, N) and FOOGM (1,1) was constructed. The development cost for small cross section data, definition of similarity according to the similarity ranking, original data, provides sample data and forecast object is similar to the FOGM (0, N) model to solve the influence of more sensitive, and a key factor driving costs The fractional accumulation of FOGM (0, N) model, forecast the development cost. The rocket launch vehicle development costs reflect the characteristics of time series problems, using new information priority principle, construction of FGOM (1,1) model, to achieve maximum mining development cost time series data at least information. (4) "launch vehicle development from the perspective of technological scheme cost market integrated grey correlation model for screening research. Aiming at the launch vehicle development program selection is lack of system engineering perspective, considering the cost, technology, market, build a grey relational integration perspective screening house framework, construction technology competitiveness index, cost competitiveness index, calculation model of the market the competitiveness index. And then build a launch vehicle development and market experts" experience, construction technology - cost market "index weight maximum entropy distribution model, the trade-off. There are three dimensions of operation, cost and market. Finally, a grey weighted relational screening model is developed based on the technology cost market integration perspective, so as to realize the comprehensive screening of launch vehicle development plan.

【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F224;F426.5;F406.7

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