埃博拉病毒病的传播模型及其防控仿真

发布时间：2018-05-09 19:33

  本文选题：埃博拉病毒病 + SEIR传染病模型　； 参考：《大连工业大学学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：为研究埃博拉病毒病的流行规律和发展趋势,选用世界卫生组织(WHO)发布的利比里亚(Liberia)从2014年5月25日至11月16日的统计数据,分别对控前和控后两个阶段建立SEIR传染病模型,模型中的传染率参数在采取控制措施后发生变化。利用最小二乘法拟合及Matlab软件,模拟传染病流行趋势,拟合最优参数值,并给出仿真图。对干预措施开始时间作敏感度分析,发现累计最大感染人数对其呈指数增长规律,模型预测每延迟1d开始干预措施,累计最大感染人数会增加200多人。得出基本再生数的公式,控前R0=1.43,控后R1=0.2,说明采取的宣传教育、追踪隔离等控制措施是有效的。
[Abstract]:In order to study the epidemic pattern and development trend of Ebola virus disease, the SEIR epidemic model was established from May 25 to November 16, 2014 with the statistical data of Liberia published by World Health Organization (WHO) from May 25 to November 16, 2014. The infection rate parameters in the model change after taking control measures. By using least square fitting and Matlab software, the epidemic trend of infectious diseases is simulated, the optimum parameter value is fitted, and the simulation diagram is given. The sensitivity analysis of the intervention at the beginning time showed that the cumulative maximum number of infections increased exponentially, and the model predicted that the cumulative maximum number of infections would increase by more than 200 people with each delay of one day to start the intervention. The formula of the basic number of regeneration is obtained, the control measures before and after control are 1.43 and 0.2respectively, which shows that the control measures such as propaganda and education, tracking and isolation are effective.
【作者单位】： 沈阳农业大学理学院;
【基金】：辽宁省教育科学规划课题(JG16DB389) 中华农业科教基金教材建设研究项目(NKJ201503031) 辽宁省教育厅科学研究项目(LSNYB201609)
【分类号】：O175
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本文编号：1867136