城市轨道交通灾害链式网络定量化描述关键问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 11:01

本文选题：城市轨道交通 + 灾害链　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来城市轨道交通发展不断加速,在现代城市公共交通中扮演着越来越重要的角色,随之而来,人们对城市轨道交通的安全状况的重视程度也相应提高。但是由于城市轨道交通是一个相对复杂并且联系紧密的系统,其灾害事件往往在极短时间内并发或多发,形成链式或网状结构,从而造成更大的损失。因此对城市轨道交通灾害链式网络的研究具有重要意义。本文基于灾害链及复杂网络相关理论,以城市轨道交通灾害事件作为研究对象,通过量化灾害链中事件间的连锁反应,给出了其链式网络建模描述,随后针对该网络模型进行评价分析,实现对城市轨道交通灾害发生后的宏观预警并给出了救援建议。首先,本文利用HAZOP分析方法合并简化部分城市轨道交通灾害事件,将其抽象为网络模型节点;通过构建共现矩阵,利用Jaccard指数量化灾害链式网络模型节点之间的相关关系,构建城市轨道交通灾害无向网络;随后针对城市轨道交通灾害事件的时间跨度及灾害发生的顺序性特点,优化了一种引发率计算方法,构建城市轨道交通灾害链式有向加权网络模型。然后,通过选取节点的度、点权、点介数、平均灾害路径长度、边介数、网络连通度作为城市轨道交通灾害链式网络评价指标,构建了城市轨道交通灾害链式网络评价指标体系,并利用pajek及MATLAB软件对指标进行获取。从“节点重要性”和“边的脆弱性”两个角度对网络进行评价,并给出网络中“节点重要性”和“边的脆弱性”具体算法。最后,以统计收集的城市轨道交通灾害历史数据为例进行算例验证,依据本文所提出的建模方法构建城市轨道交通灾害链式网络模型并进行评价分析,以便更准确的找到网络中最重要的节点以及与节点相连脆弱度最高的边,更大程度上破坏灾害链式网络结构,为相关部门、消防人员在城市轨道交通灾害事件发生时争取更多的救援时间,以及为断链减灾工作提供可行性建议。本文的创新工作在于,提出了城市轨道交通灾害链式网络模型的构建方法,设计引发率的计算方法以量化灾害间关联关系,仿照无向加权聚类系数改进提出了适用于有向加权网络的节点重要性算法,丰富了城市轨道交通灾害链的相关理论。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the development of urban rail transit has been accelerating, which plays a more and more important role in modern urban public transport. With this, people pay more attention to the safety of urban rail transit. However, because urban rail transit is a relatively complex and closely connected system, its disaster events often occur simultaneously or repeatedly in a very short time, and form chain or network structure, resulting in greater losses. Therefore, the study of urban rail transit disaster chain network is of great significance. Based on the theory of disaster chain and complex network, this paper takes the urban rail transit disaster event as the research object, and gives the chain network modeling description by quantifying the chain reaction between the events in the disaster chain. Then the network model is evaluated and analyzed to realize the macro warning of urban rail transit disaster and give some rescue suggestions. Firstly, this paper uses HAZOP analysis method to merge and simplify some urban rail transit disaster events and abstract them into network model nodes, and by constructing co-occurrence matrix, using Jaccard index to quantify the correlation between disaster chain network model nodes. The undirected network of urban rail transit disaster is constructed, and then, according to the time span of urban rail transit disaster events and the characteristics of the sequence of disasters, a method to calculate the initiation rate is optimized. The urban rail transit disaster chain weighted network model is constructed. Then, by selecting the degree of nodes, point weight, point number, average disaster path length, edge medium number, network connectivity as the evaluation index of urban rail transit disaster chain network. The evaluation index system of urban rail transit disaster chain network is constructed, and the index is obtained by using pajek and MATLAB software. This paper evaluates the network from the point of view of "node importance" and "edge vulnerability", and gives the algorithm of "node importance" and "edge vulnerability" in the network. Finally, taking the historical data of urban rail transit disaster collected by statistics as an example to verify, according to the modeling method proposed in this paper, the chain network model of urban rail transit disaster is constructed, and the evaluation analysis is carried out. In order to more accurately find the most important nodes in the network and the most vulnerable edges connected to the nodes, and to a greater extent destroy the disaster chain network structure, for the relevant departments, Firefighters strive for more rescue time when urban rail transit disaster events occur, and provide feasible suggestions for disaster reduction work. The innovative work of this paper is to put forward the construction method of urban rail transit disaster chain network model and design a method to calculate the initiation rate to quantify the correlation between disasters. Based on the improvement of undirected weighted clustering coefficient, a node importance algorithm for directed weighted networks is proposed, which enriches the theory of disaster chain of urban rail transit.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298;O157.5

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