区间灰色模糊不确定语言集在工程项目风险因素排序中的应用

发布时间：2018-06-26 10:58

本文选题：隧道工程 + 风险辨识　；参考：《公路交通科技》2017年09期

【摘要】：为更全面、更真实地表达工程项目风险信息,提高工程项目风险因素排序结果的准确性,针对具有信息灰性、模糊性和语言描述性的工程项目风险因素排序问题,运用区间灰度表达灰性,运用隶属度表达模糊性,运用不确定语言变量表达语言描述性。在区间灰色模糊不确定语言集的基础上,结合C-OWA算子,建立工程项目风险因素排序模型,用于预测主要风险因素。以南京市纬三路过江隧道为例验证所建模型的可行性。研究结果表明,相比模糊集只能利用隶属度表达模糊性,区间灰色模糊不确定语言集不仅可以利用隶属度表达模糊性,还可以利用区间灰度和不确定语言变量表达灰性和语言描述性,这有助于提高实际工程项目风险信息表达的全面性和真实性,进而提高工程项目风险因素排序结果的准确性,帮助项目管理者更准确地了解主要风险因素,为采取针对性的风险预控措施提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:In order to express the engineering project risk information more comprehensively and realistically, and to improve the accuracy of the ranking results of engineering project risk factors, the ranking problem of engineering project risk factors with information grey, fuzziness and descriptive language is addressed. Grey property is expressed by interval gray level, fuzziness is expressed by membership degree, and language descriptive is expressed by uncertain language variable. On the basis of interval grey fuzzy uncertain language set and combined with C-OWA operator, a ranking model of engineering project risk factors is established, which is used to predict the main risk factors. The feasibility of the model is verified by the example of Wie-San Road Crossing Tunnel in Nanjing. The results show that compared with fuzzy set, fuzzy degree can only be used to express fuzziness, and interval grey fuzzy uncertain language set can not only express fuzziness by membership degree. It can also express grey and language description by interval gray scale and uncertain language variable, which is helpful to improve the comprehensiveness and authenticity of risk information expression of actual engineering project, and then to improve the accuracy of ranking results of engineering project risk factors. To help project managers to understand the main risk factors more accurately, and to provide theoretical basis for the adoption of targeted risk control measures.
【作者单位】：重庆交通大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71401019) 国家社会科学基金项目(15CGL051) 重庆市社会科学规划项目(2011YBGL112)
【分类号】：O223

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