基于自回归积分滑动平均模型的可转移负荷竞价策略

发布时间：2018-06-29 01:28

本文选题：可转移负荷 + 电价预测　；参考：《电力系统自动化》2017年20期

【摘要】：研究了在较成熟的电力市场环境下,可转移负荷在日前市场和实时市场的最优竞价策略。在最优报价计算过程中,必须满足可转移负荷在截止时间内完成运行一定的电能消耗的约束条件。考虑到传统平均值短期负荷预测结果存在偏差,提出了一种基于自回归积分滑动平均模型的可转移负荷最优竞价策略,通过历史电价的变化特征估计模型的参数,从而预测第二天的日前电价和实时电价曲线,并以此为依据优化竞价策略。在此基础上,考虑功率限制,提出了基于贪心算法思想的电能竞价自动调整算法。通过实际电价数据进行计算,验证了此策略比单纯利用历史数据的期望值作为模型参数为购电者节省了更多购电费用,并能够有效完成竞价调整,以满足各个周期的功率限制。
[Abstract]:The optimal bidding strategy of the transferable load in the pre day market and the real time market is studied under the mature power market environment. In the process of optimal quotation calculation, the constraint conditions for the transfer load to complete a certain electrical energy consumption in the cut-off time must be satisfied. Considering the deviation of the traditional average short-term load forecasting results, An optimal bidding strategy of transferable load based on autoregressive integrated sliding average model is proposed. The parameters of the model are estimated through the change characteristics of historical electricity price, so as to predict the daily price and real time price curve of second days, and on this basis, the bidding strategy is optimized. On this basis, considering the power limit, it is based on the greed. According to the actual electricity price data, it is proved that this strategy saves more cost than the expected value of historical data as model parameters for the power buyers, and can effectively complete the bidding adjustment so as to meet the power limit of each cycle.
【作者单位】：新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学);国网北京市电力公司;
【基金】：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0900501)~~
【分类号】：F407.61;O212.1

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