基于双曲正切函数的西南干旱投入产出模型的构建
[Abstract]:Drought is the phenomenon of water shortage caused by water revenue and expenditure or imbalance of supply and demand in a climate with no precipitation or low precipitation in the long term. Drought disaster is also a major natural disaster which endangers agricultural production in China. It is also the most widely affected meteorological disaster in China. In recent years, frequent droughts are frequent. It has brought great economic loss to China. Firstly, this paper analyzes the drought characteristics of China. Using the monthly precipitation data of 613 stations in China for 1961~2010 years, the drought events are separated from the monthly normalized precipitation index (SPI) sequence based on the range theory, and the drought intensity and drought duration are 2 by the K-S test method. The distribution function of the characteristic quantity is tested. On this basis, the Copula function is used to establish the one. Dimension joint probability distribution function of 2 characteristic quantities. The effects of the revision of the dry early diachronic distribution function on the joint probability and the recurrence period of different types of drought are compared and analyzed. The results show that the characteristics of drought intensity conform to the Gamma distribution and the drought calendar. When the time distribution function of drought time distribution function is revised, the joint probability of most drought types decreases and the joint probability of a few drought types increases, and the joint recurrence period of different types of droughts increases. At the same time, with the increase of drought intensity, there is no obvious change in the difference between the maximum and the minimum joint recurrence period, but the difference between the maximum and the minimum joint recurrence period is obviously increased with the increase of the drought duration. The calculation method and physical significance of the parameters in the model are made clear. The SPI index of the 6 month scale and the direct economic loss (after eliminating the inflationary factors) are introduced as the independent variable and the dependent variable respectively. The model of the dry early disaster loss assessment in the southwestern China is constructed. The initial value of the model parameters is determined by the scatter plot, and the optimal coefficient of the determination coefficient and the sum of the square sum of the deviations are corrected as the optimal fitting criterion. The optimal disaster loss assessment model is obtained. The return test is carried out on the direct economic losses of drought disasters in the southwest of China for 2004-2013 years by using the optimal disaster loss assessment model. The correlation coefficient of the statistical value is 0.9, and the root mean square error of the return value and the actual value is 57.74, the deviation of the return value is more reasonable, and the direct economic loss of the drought disaster in Southwest China in 2014 is estimated. The forecast value is very close to the actual economic loss of the drought disaster in the same year, which shows that the drought disaster in the region is established in this paper. The feasibility of the thought of damage assessment model and the reliability of the model of drought disaster loss assessment in Southwest China. Finally, the indirect economic impact of agricultural drought on other industries in the southwest of China in 2007 is analyzed by using the input and output model in economics. The drought has not only direct impact on social economy, but also indirect effect on social economy. The quantitative size of the indirect influence is rarely studied. This paper selects the agricultural economy which is sensitive to drought and has a high vulnerability to agricultural economy, and uses the input-output model to introduce drought as a factor affecting the social economy. It has a certain impact on other industries, and the greater the impact of agricultural losses on other industries. The stronger related industries with agricultural production, such as chemical industry, food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, wholesale and retail industry, and so on, are less affected by agricultural production related industries, such as social management and society. The industrial structure of the southwest regions is different, the chemical industry in Guizhou and Yunnan is significantly more affected than in other industries, while the other industries in Sichuan and Chongqing are more affected than those in Guizhou and Yunnan, which also reflect the industries of Sichuan and Chongqing. There is a strong correlation between structure and agriculture, and in the same circumstances, the indirect economic losses are greater.
【学位授予单位】:扬州大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F127;P426.616;F224
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