Logistic模型与年龄移算在二胎政策分析中的应用

发布时间：2018-09-01 07:59

【摘要】：近年来,随着二胎政策的全面开放,我国的人口数量变化趋势也随之改变,这种变化势必会对社会的发展产生一定的影响,因此准确的预估人口数量变化趋势是十分有必要的。本文中我们运用统计学中常用来预估数据变化趋势的回归分析法,对人口数据进行分析,给出了二胎政策开放后人口的变化趋势,并对影响二胎生育意愿的因素进行了分析。首先本文介绍了线性回归、马尔萨斯人口模型、logistic增长模型、年龄移算模型几种常用的人口预测模型的主要思想,以及它们的优缺点,并结合了三十多年以来的人口数据,通过matlab统计软件对一部分数据进行数值分析,估计出模型的参数,表示出具体的模型,应用相关性、置信区间等衡量标准对模型的可信性进行评估。然后通过得到的模型对2011-2015年的人口数量进行预测,与实际值对比,找出准确率最高,函数曲线拟合效果最好的模型。通过该模型,我们对不开放二胎政策前提下的2016年人口数进行预测,与实际值进行比较,得出二胎新生儿的大致数量,结合适龄生育女性数,估计选择生育二胎的家庭的数量,并分析了可能影响家庭生育二胎意愿的因素。最后用logistic增长模型与年龄移算模型结合,构造出能够简便估计未来一段时间内人口数量的方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the overall opening of the two-child policy, the trend of population change in China will change, which will inevitably have a certain impact on the development of society, so it is very necessary to accurately estimate the trend of population change. In this paper, we use the regression analysis method, which is often used in statistics to estimate the change trend of the data, analyze the population data, give the change trend of the population after the opening up of the policy of second child, and analyze the factors that affect the willingness of the second child to have a child. Firstly, this paper introduces the main ideas of linear regression, Malthus population model and logistic growth model, age shift model, and their advantages and disadvantages, and combines the population data of more than 30 years. Through the numerical analysis of some data by matlab statistical software, the parameters of the model are estimated, and the concrete model is expressed. The credibility of the model is evaluated by using the measurement criteria such as correlation, confidence interval and so on. Then the population of 2011-2015 is forecasted by the model, and compared with the actual value, the model with the highest accuracy and the best fitting effect of function curve is found. Through this model, we forecast the population in 2016 under the premise of the policy of not opening up to two children, compare with the actual value, and get the approximate number of second births, combined with the number of women of appropriate age, and estimate the number of families that choose to have a second child. The factors that may affect the willingness of families to have a second child are analyzed. Finally, by combining the logistic growth model with the age shift model, a simple method to estimate the population in the future is proposed.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：O212.1

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