基于动态微分博弈理论的工程应急决策研究

发布时间：2018-10-13 12:49

【摘要】：鉴于突发事件发展与演化的不确定性与动态性,立足于更为优化的应急决策,从多主体竞争角度出发,基于复杂动态环境下工程应急管理中两决策主体的特性:一方面追求最优风险控制,同时力争自身利益最大化,本文建立了连续型动态微分博弈模型。算法方面将动态博弈理论与最优控制理论相结合,并通过MATLAB软件进行模型的数值求解和仿真,阐释应急管理系统中各组织实体之间竞争与合作并存的博弈关系和演化过程。进一步针对部分参数进行了灵敏度分析,挖掘系统关键影响因子,提出可行性建议。本文研究从理论和模型角度探讨了突发事件应急管理的动态决策机制,为实践中应急策略的择优和应急措施的实施提供了必要的方法支撑,为实现高效应急决策,优化资源集成奠定了理论基础。
[Abstract]:In view of the uncertainty and dynamics of the development and evolution of unexpected events, based on the more optimized emergency decision, we proceed from the angle of multi-agent competition. Based on the characteristics of the two decision makers in engineering emergency management in complex dynamic environment: on the one hand, the optimal risk control is pursued, while the self-benefit is maximized, a continuous dynamic differential game model is established in this paper. In the aspect of algorithm, the dynamic game theory and optimal control theory are combined, and the numerical solution and simulation of the model are carried out by MATLAB software to explain the game relation and evolution process of the competition and cooperation among the various organizational entities in the emergency management system. The sensitivity analysis of some parameters is carried out, the key factors of the system are excavated, and the feasibility suggestions are put forward. In this paper, the dynamic decision-making mechanism of emergency management is discussed from the angle of theory and model, which provides the necessary method support for the selection of emergency strategy and the implementation of emergency measures in practice. Optimization of resource integration lays a theoretical foundation.
【作者单位】：北京邮电大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271031) 教育部人文社科规划基金项目(09YJA630011)
【分类号】：O225

【相似文献】