保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策方法
发布时间：2018-11-25 11:52
【摘要】：应急决策结果关系重大,少数意见十分重要,解决冲突型应急决策问题的关键是在有限时间内,做出被大多数决策成员认可的相对可靠的决策结果,因此决策质量和时效性必须同时兼顾.本文试图建立基于保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策模型,用于协调处理应急决策中可能存在的少数意见,以保证决策质量.利用客观修正系数对决策过程进行模拟,给出群体冲突水平阈值的定量选取方法.提出综合修正系数的思想,以应对成员不愿调整自身偏好的情形,保证决策时效性.构建了基于保护少数意见的偏好冲突消解模型,充分考虑少数意见,并对其进行合理处理.案例分析验证了所提方法的可行性;对比分析显示了所提方法处理冲突型大群体应急决策问题的优势;构造了足够数量的决策算例,模拟各种不同复杂程度、紧急程度下的决策过程,分析了所提方法的合理性和适用范围.
[Abstract]:The result of emergency decision is very important and the minority opinion is very important. The key to solve the problem of conflict type emergency decision is to make a relatively reliable decision result approved by the majority of decision making members in a limited time. Therefore, the quality and timeliness of the decision must be taken into account at the same time. This paper attempts to establish an emergency decision-making model for large conflict groups based on protecting minority opinions, which is used to coordinate and deal with the minority opinions that may exist in emergency decision-making, so as to ensure the quality of decision-making. The objective correction coefficient is used to simulate the decision-making process and the quantitative selection method of threshold value of group conflict level is given. The idea of comprehensive correction coefficient is put forward to deal with the situation that members are unwilling to adjust their preferences to ensure the timeliness of decision making. A preference conflict resolution model based on minority protection is constructed, which takes minority views into full consideration and deals with them reasonably. The case analysis verifies the feasibility of the proposed method, and the comparative analysis shows the advantages of the proposed method in dealing with the problem of emergency decision-making of large conflict groups. A sufficient number of decision examples are constructed to simulate the decision-making process with different complexity and emergency. The rationality and application range of the proposed method are analyzed.
【作者单位】： 中南大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671189;71431006;71471178) 中南大学创新驱动计划项目(2015CX010)
【分类号】：O225
本文编号：2355999
[Abstract]:The result of emergency decision is very important and the minority opinion is very important. The key to solve the problem of conflict type emergency decision is to make a relatively reliable decision result approved by the majority of decision making members in a limited time. Therefore, the quality and timeliness of the decision must be taken into account at the same time. This paper attempts to establish an emergency decision-making model for large conflict groups based on protecting minority opinions, which is used to coordinate and deal with the minority opinions that may exist in emergency decision-making, so as to ensure the quality of decision-making. The objective correction coefficient is used to simulate the decision-making process and the quantitative selection method of threshold value of group conflict level is given. The idea of comprehensive correction coefficient is put forward to deal with the situation that members are unwilling to adjust their preferences to ensure the timeliness of decision making. A preference conflict resolution model based on minority protection is constructed, which takes minority views into full consideration and deals with them reasonably. The case analysis verifies the feasibility of the proposed method, and the comparative analysis shows the advantages of the proposed method in dealing with the problem of emergency decision-making of large conflict groups. A sufficient number of decision examples are constructed to simulate the decision-making process with different complexity and emergency. The rationality and application range of the proposed method are analyzed.
【作者单位】： 中南大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71671189;71431006;71471178) 中南大学创新驱动计划项目(2015CX010)
【分类号】：O225
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