老挝血吸虫病介绍及数学模型的研究

发布时间：2019-01-22 13:46

【摘要】：传染病是严重危及人类健康和制约社会经济发展的一类疾病,每年被感染的人数很多,部分传染病死亡率也很高。血吸虫病是一种比较常见的传染病,常见于世界各地,老挝就是一个有血吸虫病传播的国家之一。在老挝,血吸虫病最早于公元1957年被发现在占巴塞省的两座城市(孔市和幕拉巴某市)。这两座城市都是老挝最南部的城市,位于湄公河流域,都包含有很多大大小小的岛屿,这也是滋生吸血虫病的原因之一。在本论文当中,我只研究老挝血吸虫病(湄公血吸虫病),其中部分用来写这篇毕业论文的资料都是来自于占巴塞医院。本文分为两章:第一章是介绍老挝血吸虫病,简单介绍老挝血吸虫病和它的历史背景,湄公血吸虫病的传播,湄公血吸虫病的防治策略包括现有问题及未来的挑战。第二章是建立血吸虫病模型。基于实际数据中的不同年龄段病人的比例不一样的现象,本章我们建立了一个湄公血吸虫病数学模型,模型当中考虑人宿主中感染的比例和钉螺宿主中感染的比例。这里我们分别将人宿主分为不同的8个年龄段(k = 1,2,...8;k代表年龄段" 1:1～4 岁,2:5～9 岁,3:10～14 岁,4:15～19 岁,5:20～29 岁,6:30～39岁,7:40～49,8:49"),然后计算出平衡点的存在性,求出基本再生数,讨论模型的无病平衡点的稳定性。最后利用Matlab软件进行数值模拟,对地方病平衡点稳定性进行讨论,并针对不同年龄段病人的传染率进行控制比较,结果发现10～14岁病人的防控对湄公吸虫病的控制是最有效的,而大于49岁病人的防控是效果最差的。
[Abstract]:Infectious disease is a kind of disease which seriously endangers human health and restricts the development of social economy. The number of infected people is large and the mortality rate of some infectious diseases is also very high. Schistosomiasis is a relatively common infectious disease, common in all parts of the world, Laos is one of the countries with schistosomiasis transmission. In Laos, schistosomiasis was first found in two cities (Kong and Murabah) in Zampasai province in 1957. Both cities in the southernmost part of Laos, in the Mekong River basin, contain islands large and small, which is one of the reasons for the disease. In this paper, I only study the Lao schistosomiasis (Mekong schistosomiasis). This paper is divided into two chapters: the first chapter is to introduce the Lao schistosomiasis and its historical background, the transmission of Mekong schistosomiasis, the control strategy of Mekong schistosomiasis, including the existing problems and challenges in the future. The second chapter is the establishment of schistosomiasis model. Based on the different proportions of patients of different ages in the actual data, we establish a mathematical model of Schistosomiasis Mekong in which the proportion of infection in human host and the proportion of infection in host of Oncomelania hupensis are considered. Here we divide the human host into 8 different age groups (k = 1 / 2. 8; K stands for "1: 1: 4, 2: 5, 9, 3: 10, 10, 14, 4: 15, 19, 5: 20, 29, 6: 30, 39, 7: 4049, 8: 49," and then calculates the existence of the equilibrium point. The basic reproducing number is obtained and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model is discussed. Finally, the stability of endemic equilibrium point is discussed by numerical simulation with Matlab software, and the infection rate of patients of different ages is compared. The results showed that the control of Mekong clonorchiasis was the most effective in patients aged 10 ~ 14 years, but the control effect was the worst in patients over 49 years old.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：O175

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