模糊变权组合预测方法研究
发布时间：2019-05-27 08:19
【摘要】：在不确定环境组合预测中,用模糊权重系数更能体现各单项预测方法的客观表现。文章提出一种新的权重系数为三角模糊数的组合预测方法。首先建立以组合预测精确度指数最小为准则的模糊加权组合预测模型,为了避免样本数据中极端值对模型的影响,对模型进行改进,提出带有0-1变量的模糊加权组合预测模型。进一步考虑到单项预测方法在不同时刻的表现有所差异,建立基于诱导有序模糊加权平均(IOFWA)算子的模糊变权组合预测模型,该模型不仅能克服极端值的影响,而且具有更高的预测精确度。并实证验证了该方法的适用性和灵活性。
[Abstract]:In uncertain environmental combination forecasting, fuzzy weight coefficient can better reflect the objective performance of each individual prediction method. In this paper, a new combined forecasting method with triangular fuzzy number with weight coefficient is proposed. Firstly, a fuzzy weighted combination forecasting model based on the minimum accuracy index of combined forecasting is established. In order to avoid the influence of extreme values in sample data on the model, the model is improved. A fuzzy weighted combination prediction model with 0 鈮，
本文编号：2486001
[Abstract]:In uncertain environmental combination forecasting, fuzzy weight coefficient can better reflect the objective performance of each individual prediction method. In this paper, a new combined forecasting method with triangular fuzzy number with weight coefficient is proposed. Firstly, a fuzzy weighted combination forecasting model based on the minimum accuracy index of combined forecasting is established. In order to avoid the influence of extreme values in sample data on the model, the model is improved. A fuzzy weighted combination prediction model with 0 鈮，
本文编号：2486001
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