美国消费需求波动对中国制造业影响的估算

发布时间：2018-07-09 17:19

本文选题：美国消费 + 中国制造业　；参考：《求索》2016年07期

【摘要】：以世界投入产出表为数据基础,测度中国制造业对美国消费需求的弹性,并应用极分解平均值法,分解了各种因素对弹性变动的影响。结果表明,中国制造业对美国消费需求的弹性较高,但呈下降趋势。2011年,中国低技术制造业对美国消费需求的弹性最高,其次是高技术制造业,中技术制造业对美国消费需求的弹性最低。1995至2011年,中国低技术制造业对美国消费需求弹性的下降幅度最大,其次是中技术制造业,高技术制造业对美国消费需求弹性的下降幅度最低。中外产业完全关联作用、美国消费需求结构和美国消费需求总量都对弹性有拉升作用。为了应对美国消费需求波动对中国制造业造成不良影响,提出以下对策。一是密切关注美国消费需求变动趋势,提前做好应对之策,二是积极开拓"一带一路"沿线国家市场,三是将部分生产网络布局到TPP中的亚洲国家,四是加强对国外制造业或工业新战略的研究。
[Abstract]:Based on the world input-output table, the elasticity of Chinese manufacturing to American consumer demand is measured, and the influence of various factors on the elasticity is analyzed by using the Polar decomposition average method. The results show that China's manufacturing industry has a higher elasticity to American consumer demand, but a downward trend. In 2011, China's low-technology manufacturing industry showed the highest elasticity to American consumer demand, followed by high-tech manufacturing. The elasticity of Chinese technological manufacturing to American consumer demand is the lowest. From 1995 to 2011, China's low-skilled manufacturing industry experienced the largest decline in the elasticity of US consumer demand, followed by Chinese technological manufacturing. The decline in high-tech manufacturing's elasticity of consumer demand in the United States was the lowest. Chinese and foreign industries are completely related to each other. The structure of American consumer demand and the total amount of American consumption demand have an effect on elasticity. In order to deal with the adverse impact of American consumer demand fluctuation on Chinese manufacturing industry, the following countermeasures are put forward. One is to pay close attention to the changing trend of US consumer demand, and to make a good response in advance; the second is to actively develop the markets of countries along the "Belt and Road"; and the third is to lay out some production networks in Asian countries in the TPP. Fourth, strengthen the research on the new strategy of foreign manufacturing or industry.
【作者单位】：重庆三峡学院;西南财经大学;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJA790022) 重庆市教委社会科学规划一般项目(16SKGH149) 重庆市人文社会科学重点研究基地“三峡库区可持续发展研究中心”开放基金项目(15sxxyjd05)
【分类号】：F424;F171.2

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