对警力与犯罪相互关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-16 12:23

【摘要】：文章利用江苏省"十五"期间的面板数据对警力与犯罪问题进行实证研究。与以往文献不同,我们把一线民警从整体警力中剥离出来,认为一线民警的数量与犯罪率存在双向因果关系。通过对联立方程组进行三阶段最小二乘估计(3SLS),我们发现,刑事案件以及治安案件案发数对一线民警比重没有显著的影响;增加一线民警比重能够显著减少刑事案件相对数,而对治安案件却没有显著影响;此外,警察总量对刑事案件以及治安案件的发生都没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,在经济社会环境不同的地区(例如苏南、苏北),尽管案发绝对数存在显著差异,但是警力与犯罪的相互关系并没有表现出显著的差异。
[Abstract]:This paper makes an empirical study on police force and crime by using panel data of Jiangsu Province during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. Different from the previous literature, we separate the first-line police from the overall police force, and think that the number of first-line police has a two-way causal relationship with the crime rate. Through the three-stage least square estimation (3SLS) of the simultaneous equations, we find that the number of criminal cases and public security cases has no significant impact on the proportion of first-line police officers, and that increasing the proportion of first-line police officers can significantly reduce the relative number of criminal cases. In addition, the total amount of police has no significant influence on criminal cases and the occurrence of public security cases. Further study shows that in the regions with different economic and social environment (such as southern Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu), although there are significant differences in absolute number of cases, there is no significant difference between police force and crime.
【作者单位】：上海大学经济学院;上海财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委(项目编号:70871073) 教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”(项目编号:NCET-09-0538)资助,教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(项目编号:10YJC790316) 上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题(项目编号:2010EJB003) 上海高校选拔优秀青年教师科研专项基金项目上海大学人文社会科学校内创新项目资助
【分类号】：D917;D631.1

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