印度与美日海洋安全互动:进攻性现实主义视角

发布时间：2018-01-29 11:23

本文关键词： 印度美国海洋安全借势战略进攻性现实主义　出处：《国际安全研究》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：尽管印度并非米尔斯海默所界定的大国,但并不妨碍印度在对外关系中采取进攻性现实主义的外交策略。从历史传统来看,印度主要采取借势战略的进攻性现实主义策略。借势战略之所以成为进攻性现实主义策略,不仅在于其为获取权力服务,还在于特别重视军事能力的准备与运用。通过审慎分析可以发现,借势战略的收益受诸多变量的影响,其中尤以地缘优劣、国家能力强弱、权力权重、国际制度、队友考量、目标或非目标等影响最为突出。印度与美日海洋安全互动正是其对进攻性现实主义借势战略策略的运用,在该借势战略框架中,印度为施动者,针对目标为中国,借势对象为美国、日本,收益目标包括安全、发展与权力,手段则重视军事能力的准备与扩张。正是基于借势战略,印度与美日的海洋安全互动取得了令人瞩目的进展,尤其在推动印太地缘政治形态、共同应对中国的海洋"挑战"、多边联合军演制度化、军事装备与技术贸易等方面令人印象深刻。不过,根据借势战略收益的框架进行分析,印度与美日海洋安全互动的借势战略收益是复杂的,大致可以分为正向收益、不确定性收益和负向收益。于中国而言,对印度的进攻性现实主义策略应当有清醒的认识,并做好相关防范。
[Abstract]:Although India is not a great country as defined by Mills, it does not prevent India from adopting an offensive and realistic diplomatic strategy in its foreign relations. India mainly adopts the offensive realism strategy of seizing the opportunity strategy. The reason why seizing the opportunity strategy becomes the offensive realism strategy lies not only in its service for the acquisition of power. Through careful analysis, we can find that the benefits of seizing the opportunity strategy are affected by many variables, especially the geographical advantages and disadvantages, the strength of national capacity, and the weight of power. The influence of international system, team-mate consideration, target or non-target is most prominent. The interaction between India and Japan is the use of offensive realism strategy to seize opportunity, which is in the framework of opportunity strategy. India is the operator, the target is China, and the target of opportunity is the United States and Japan. The revenue targets include security, development and power, and the means attach importance to the preparation and expansion of military capability. It is precisely based on the strategy of seizing the opportunity. The maritime security interaction between India and the United States and Japan has made remarkable progress, especially in promoting the India-Pacific geopolitical pattern, jointly dealing with China's maritime "challenges," and institutionalizing multilateral joint military exercises. Trade in military equipment and technology is impressive. However, based on the analysis of the framework of the strategic benefits of seizing opportunities, the strategic gains from India's interaction with the United States and Japan on maritime security are complex. It can be divided into positive return, uncertain return and negative return. For China, we should have a clear understanding of India's offensive realism strategy and do a good job of prevention.
【作者单位】：云南省社会科学院南亚研究所;中国南亚学会;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“印美日海洋安全合作及其对中国的影响研究”(项目编号:14BGJ017) 浙江师范大学重大项目“东非印度洋沿岸国家经济发展及与中国合作问题研究”(项目编号:14FZZX03Z)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D815.5
【正文快照】： 05-0053-26尽管有学者认为,地缘经济与地缘政治之间的界限越来越模糊,(1)但基于地缘政治基础上的现实政治作用仍然随处可见。在某种程度上,正如有人指出的那样,冷战结束的时间里,学者不断地重复地理与地缘政治已经不重要,经济合作的力量已经超越了军事力量的论断,然而这是不真

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