基于蒙特卡罗模拟的社区养老服务PPP项目投资决策研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 11:34

本文关键词： 社区养老服务 PPP 蒙特卡罗模拟敏感性分析投资决策　出处：《山东建筑大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会的不断发展和老龄化人口数量的持续增多,如何养老已成为我国当今社会最为关注的问题。目前,我国家庭结构逐渐变小,家庭养老功能逐步减弱,加上受传统养老观念的影响,多数老人还难以接受“养老院”式的养老模式,在这种条件下,一种新的养老模式——社区养老被提出。为解决我国养老问题,政府开始增加对社区养老项目的支持力度。为促进社区养老模式的推广,政府需要提供大量的资金支持,为缓解政府财政压力,PPP模式在社区养老服务项目中被提出。但由于社区养老模式是新型养老模式,加之目前PPP模式下的社区养老服务项目还处于实施阶段,使得该类项目具有较高的投资风险。在此背景下,文章站在社会资本的角度,通过识别、分析社区养老服务项目存在的风险因素,找出影响项目投资决策的关键风险,并确定PPP模式下政府对关键风险因素的分担形式,建立了基于政府风险分担的社区养老服务PPP项目投资决策模型,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对模型中的决策变量进行模拟,并对主要变量因素进行敏感性分析,通过分析模拟结果和敏感性分析结果,判断项目风险大小,从而做出投资决策。首先,通过阅读大量文献,了解PPP项目投资决策、PPP项目投融资以及养老服务业方面的国内外研究现状,同时对PPP模式的概念、特征、优势和社区养老的概念、必要性以及投资决策理论进行了梳理。为PPP模式在养老服务项目中的应用提供理论基础。其次,以社区养老项目作为研究对象,通过分析项目公司在特许期内可能面临的风险,初步识别可能影响社区养老服务PPP项目投资决策的因素,采用DEMATEL方法对识别出的风险因素进行分析,得出影响该类项目投资决策的主要风险为市场需求风险、运营收入不足、市场竞争风险、运营效率低下和收费价格变更。再次,分析政府风险分担在社区养老服务PPP项目投资决策中的必要性,运用问卷调查确定出由政府分担的关键风险因素,点明政府风险分担对投资决策的影响,同时将关键风险因素进行量化,确定概率分布,在此基础上建立了社区养老服务PPP项目投资决策模型,并将量化之后的数据引入投资决策模型中。最后,结合某地区拟建的社区养老服务PPP项目的案例数据,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对项目的净现值、投资回收期和内部收益率进行有无政府风险分担下模拟,并对主要变量进行敏感性分析,通过对模拟结果和敏感性分析来验证投资决策模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of society and the increasing of aging population, how to provide for the aged has become the most concerned problem in our country. At present, the family structure of our country has gradually become smaller, and the function of providing for the aged has gradually weakened. In addition, under the influence of the traditional concept of providing for the aged, most old people still find it difficult to accept the "nursing home" mode of providing for the aged. Under this kind of conditions, a new mode of old-age support, the community old-age support, has been proposed. In order to solve the problem of providing for the aged in our country, The government has begun to increase its support for community pension programs. In order to promote the promotion of the community pension model, the government needs to provide a large amount of financial support. In order to alleviate the financial pressure of the government, the PPP model has been put forward in the community old-age service project. However, because the community old-age care model is a new type of old-age care model, and the current community pension service project under the PPP mode is still in the implementation stage. Under this background, this paper, from the perspective of social capital, analyzes the risk factors existing in community pension service projects, and finds out the key risks that affect the investment decisions of the projects. And the government share the key risk factors under the PPP model, establish the investment decision model of the community pension service PPP project based on the government risk sharing, and use Monte Carlo simulation method to simulate the decision-making variables in the model. By analyzing the results of simulation and sensitivity analysis, we can judge the project risk and make investment decision. First, through reading a lot of literature, To understand the domestic and foreign research status of PPP project investment and financing and pension service industry, at the same time, to understand the concept, characteristics, advantages and community pension concept of PPP model, The necessity and the investment decision theory are combed out. It provides the theoretical basis for the application of PPP model in the old-age service project. Secondly, taking the community pension project as the research object, the paper analyzes the risks that the project company may face during the concession period. This paper preliminarily identifies the factors that may affect the investment decision of PPP project of community pension service, and analyzes the identified risk factors by using DEMATEL method, and concludes that the main risk influencing the investment decision of this kind of project is the risk of market demand, and the operating income is insufficient. Thirdly, the necessity of government risk sharing in community pension service PPP project investment decision is analyzed, and the key risk factors shared by the government are determined by questionnaire survey. This paper points out the influence of government risk sharing on investment decision, quantifies the key risk factors and determines the probability distribution. On this basis, the investment decision model of community pension service PPP project is established. The quantitative data are introduced into the investment decision model. Finally, combined with the case data of the proposed community pension service PPP project in a certain area, the net present value of the project is simulated by Monte Carlo method. The investment payback period and the internal rate of return are simulated with anarchical risk sharing, and the sensitivity of the main variables is analyzed. The feasibility of the investment decision model is verified by the simulation results and sensitivity analysis.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;D669.6

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