石家庄市老龄人口养老模式研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 19:29

本文选题：老龄人口　切入点：养老模式　出处：《河北经贸大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自中国跨入老龄化社会以来,人口老龄化进程不断加快,老龄人群的规模不断增大,以致对社会经济发展造成很大的阻碍,老龄人的养老矛盾日渐突出,人口老龄化对社会经济生活的影响越来越受到人们的关注。河北省针对人口老龄化提出了一系列措施,石家庄市也积极应对人口老龄化问题,加速推进养老服务事业发展,加快全面建设小康社会建设,在养老服务、全面协调城市经济社会发展方面提出了很多新思路,结合石家庄的实际情况,制定了养老服务体系的“第十三个五年”计划,提出了一系列应对人口老龄化的政策。然而,我们对石家庄市老龄人口的详细状况及其发展趋势,养老模式及养老意愿等都详细掌握的还不甚清楚。因此,分析研究石家庄市老龄人口状况、养老模式及养老意愿,找出存在的问题及其成因,并在此基础上提出相应的对策建议,对于市政府制定相关政策,保证社会和家庭的和谐稳定、社会经济的可持续发展等具有重要的现实意义。本文的研究,主要做了以下几项工作:(1)基于石家庄市人口普查数据,对本市老龄人口的数量、性别比、年龄构成、职业、健康状况、经济水平等要素进行了详细地分析研究,总结出石家庄市老龄人的现状及特点,发现规律与问题。(2)基于石家庄市历年的统计年鉴和人口普查数据,运用ARIMA模型对石家庄市老龄人口数量进行了趋势预测。为避免石家庄市的人口数据不足造成失真,首先采用指数平滑模型对石家庄市老龄人口进行预测,可知预测模型较好,得出石家庄市未来几年的老龄人口数据,然后再用ARIMA模型对石家庄市老龄人口数量做趋势预测,根据预测曲线图可以看出,未来老龄人口的规模将持续扩大,呈现稳定增长的态势,但老龄人口的增速放缓。(3)根据对石家庄市老龄人口的问卷调查,详细地分析有关人口老龄化的各个因素,对男女性别的比例、年龄、职业、健康状况、经济发展水平,用相关分析方法,从年龄、收入、健康状况来分析老龄人口对养老模式的选择及未来养老意愿。(4)基于对石家庄市老龄人口养老模式及其养老意愿的分析研究,找出存在的问题,并提出了可行性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since China stepped into an aging society, the aging process of the population has been speeding up and the size of the elderly has been increasing, which has caused great obstacles to the social and economic development, and the contradiction between the aged and the aged has become increasingly prominent. People are paying more and more attention to the impact of population aging on social and economic life. Hebei Province has put forward a series of measures aimed at population aging. Shijiazhuang City has also actively responded to the problem of population aging and accelerated the development of pension services. Speeding up the construction of a well-off society in an all-round way, putting forward many new ideas in providing for the aged and coordinating the economic and social development of the city in an all-round way. In light of the actual situation in Shijiazhuang, we have formulated the 13th five-year plan for the pension service system. A series of policies are proposed to deal with the aging population. However, we do not have a clear understanding of the detailed situation of the elderly population in Shijiazhuang and its development trend, the pattern of the aged and the willingness to provide for the aged. This paper analyzes and studies the situation of the aged population in Shijiazhuang City, the old-age model and the old-age willingness, finds out the existing problems and their causes, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the basis of which, the relevant policies are formulated for the municipal government. It is of great practical significance to ensure the harmony and stability of society and family, the sustainable development of social economy, etc. In this paper, we mainly do the following work: 1) based on the census data of Shijiazhuang City, the number of the aged population in this city is analyzed. The factors such as sex ratio, age composition, occupation, health status and economic level were analyzed and studied in detail, and the present situation and characteristics of the elderly people in Shijiazhuang City were summarized. Based on the statistical yearbooks and census data of Shijiazhuang over the years, this paper uses ARIMA model to forecast the trend of the aging population in Shijiazhuang City, in order to avoid distortion caused by insufficient population data in Shijiazhuang City. First, the index smoothing model is used to predict the aging population in Shijiazhuang city, and the prediction model is good. The data of the aging population in Shijiazhuang city in the next few years are obtained, and then the ARIMA model is used to forecast the trend of the aging population in Shijiazhuang city. According to the forecast curve, we can see that the size of the aged population will continue to expand in the future, showing a steady growth trend, but the growth rate of the elderly population will slow down. (3) according to the questionnaire survey of the elderly population in Shijiazhuang City, Detailed analysis of factors related to population ageing, gender ratio, age, occupation, health status, level of economic development, use of relevant analysis methods, from age, income, Based on the analysis of the old-age pension model and its pension intention in Shijiazhuang City, the existing problems are found out, and the feasible countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D669.6

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