美国页岩革命及其影响

发布时间：2018-03-20 11:43

本文选题：页岩气　切入点：致密油　出处：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：页岩革命使美国由能源净进口国变为了能源净出口国,用技术革新重新定义了商业可开采能源的范围,也为分析能源市场提供了一种新的思路,十年前的高油价时代人们认为化石能源是不可再生的会被开采殆尽的,而页岩革命则表明了技术进步可使过去商业不可开采的能源变为可开采能源。页岩革命之后还有可燃冰开采技术尚待发展,可燃冰开采技术之后还有可再生能源技术,而由于能源利用率提高全球能源消耗达到一定峰值后就会开始下降。页岩革命重构了全球能源蕴藏地图,也颠覆了十年前高油价时代关于能源市场的常识。传统上认为低油价会促进经济增长,而页岩革命后只有印度等少数国家因为油价降低而经济增长。能源政治的发展也不再遵循过去的经验,在叙利亚、利比亚政治动荡、“伊斯兰国”崛起的同时油价却在下降,传统上通过减产维持油价的沙特在2015年拒绝减产。根据国际能源署(IEA)的定义,能源安全指“能在支付能力范围内不受中断地获取能源”。能源价格是能源安全的重要组成部分。在页岩革命的影响下,世界石油和天然气市场由卖方市场转变为买方市场,能源进口国的议价能力得到提升,石油和天然气出口国很难再利用中断能源供应作为“能源武器”在国际政治舞台发挥作用。相反,在国际经济不景气的大背景下,经济结构单一的能源出口国需要依赖能源进口国拓展市场,增加财政收入。但能源进口国地位的提升在不同地区的表现程度是不同的,这主要受制于各地区出于不同地理位置和历史原因形成的不同定价规则。本文辨析了最近几年能源市场产生的转变哪些是由页岩革命引起,哪些是由于页岩革命和其他因素一起发挥的作用。考察了页岩革命分别对美国、传统能源出口国和主要能源进口国的能源安全和经济安全的影响,并分析了各国面对页岩革命的具体行为表现和可能的行为方向。本文重点考察了页岩革命对各主要能源市场定价规则的影响,分析了定价规则的变化如何影响能源市场中进口国和出口国之间的政治地位和政治权力,不同的定价规则如何使页岩革命的影响在不同地区表现程度不同,并为如何借助页岩革命的影响打破“亚洲溢价”提出具体建议。
[Abstract]:The shale revolution has transformed the United States from a net importer of energy into a net exporter of energy, redefining the scope of commercially exploitable energy with technological innovations, and providing a new way of thinking about the analysis of energy markets. Ten years ago, in the era of high oil prices, it was thought that fossil energy was non-renewable and would be exhausted. And the shale revolution has shown that technological advances can turn previously commercially unexploitable energy into exploitable energy, and that there is still a need for the development of combustible ice mining after the shale revolution, followed by renewable energy technologies for combustible ice mining. And as energy efficiency increases and global energy consumption reaches a certain peak, the shale revolution reconstructs the map of global energy reserves. It also upended the conventional wisdom about energy markets in the era of high oil prices a decade ago. It has traditionally been thought that low oil prices would boost economic growth. After the shale revolution, only a few countries, such as India, grew because of lower oil prices. The development of energy politics no longer follows past experience. In Syria, Libya, political turmoil, the rise of the Islamic State, but oil prices are falling. The Saudis, who traditionally maintain oil prices by cutting production, refused to do so in 2015. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy security refers to "uninterrupted access to energy within the limits of affordability". Energy prices are an important component of energy security. Under the influence of the shale revolution, the world oil and gas market has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market. The bargaining power of energy-importing countries has been enhanced, and it is difficult for oil and gas exporters to use the interruption of energy supply as an "energy weapon" in the international political arena. On the contrary, against a backdrop of a depressed international economy, Energy-exporting countries with a single economic structure need to rely on energy-importing countries to expand their markets and increase their revenues. But the increase in the status of energy-importing countries varies from region to region. This is mainly subject to different pricing rules formed by different regions for different geographical and historical reasons. This paper analyzes which of the changes in the energy market in recent years have been caused by the shale revolution. The impact of the shale revolution on energy security and economic security in the United States, traditional energy exporters and major energy importers, respectively, was examined. It also analyzes the specific behavior and possible behavior direction of the shale revolution in various countries. This paper focuses on the impact of the shale revolution on the pricing rules of the major energy markets. Analyzing how changes in pricing rules affect political status and political power between importing and exporting countries in energy markets, and how different pricing rules make the impact of the shale revolution manifest differently in different regions, And how to use the impact of the shale revolution to break the "Asian premium" specific recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F416.22;D871.2

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