地区极性、现状偏好与中国对中亚的外交哲学

发布时间：2018-05-01 23:42

本文选题：地区极性 + 现状偏好　；参考：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：近年来,地区研究越来越多地成为国际政治的一个分析层次。随着地区研究不断深入,在分析国家对外行为时引入地区因素则是一种比较新的尝试。目前,中国在中亚地区的外交行为已是国内外政界及学界关注的热点。为了加深中国的中亚外交研究及凝聚更多的学术共识,本文以解释中国的中亚外交哲学取向为核心议题,通过引入地区极性和现状偏好两个自变量,分析中国中亚外交哲学与上述两个自变量之间的逻辑关系。研究结果表明,在国际体系存在一定压力且单元决策风险存在着不确定的条件下,中国对中亚外交哲学取向与地区极性、国家对现状偏好呈正相关,即依据地区极性强弱变化、现状偏好是受益(或损失)以及依据风险从高到低的不同程度,中国对中亚的外交哲学倾向于在进攻性、进攻—防御性或防御—进攻性、防御性之间选择。通过案例检验,本文假设都得到了较好的支持,同时也发现,从苏联解体到2016年间,中国的中亚外交哲学在大部分时间段里倾向选择中等风险,即在进攻—防御或防御—进攻性之间徘徊。
[Abstract]:In recent years, regional research has increasingly become an analytical level of international politics. With the deepening of regional research, it is a relatively new attempt to introduce regional factors into the analysis of state external behavior. At present, China's diplomatic behavior in Central Asia has become a hot spot in domestic and foreign political and academic circles. In order to deepen China's diplomatic research in Central Asia and gather more academic consensus, this paper focuses on explaining China's diplomatic philosophy orientation in Central Asia, and introduces two independent variables, regional polarity and status quo preference. This paper analyzes the logical relationship between China's diplomatic philosophy in Central Asia and the two independent variables mentioned above. The results show that under the condition of certain pressure in the international system and uncertainty of unit decision risk, China's diplomatic philosophy orientation towards Central Asia is positively related to regional polarity, and the state preference to the status quo is positively correlated, that is, according to the regional polarity changes. The present situation preference is benefit (or loss) and according to the different degree of risk from high to low, China's diplomatic philosophy towards Central Asia tends to choose between offensive, offensive or defense-offensive, defensive. Through a case study, this paper assumes that it is well supported, and finds that, from the disintegration of the Soviet Union to 2016, China's diplomatic philosophy in Central Asia tended to choose medium risk for most of the time. That is, between offensive-defensive or defensive-offensive.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所;
【分类号】：D822.336

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