核危机博弈冲突消解图模型分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 17:43

本文选题：核安全 + 冲突消解图模型　；参考：《国防科技大学学报》2017年02期

【摘要】：核安全是国家安全体系的重要组成部分。针对博弈过程定量化分析方法的不足,调整冲突消解图模型分析方法并将其应用于核危机博弈分析。提出冲突消解图模型分析流程、相关定义和矩阵表示方法;以1969年爆发的中苏核危机为背景,基于历史数据构建核危机冲突模型,应用矩阵表示算法分析博弈状态演化过程;引入博弈政策和军事能力两类模型参数,调节参数进行博弈模型敏感性分析;应用联盟分析方法识别出可能存在的决策者联盟及其对国家关系演化的影响;根据模型数据分析结果,总结相关结论和决策参考。研究结果表明,冲突分析方法适用于核危机管控研究,采用与军事实力相匹配的策略在危机博弈演化中具有重要作用。
[Abstract]:Nuclear safety is an important part of national security system. Aiming at the deficiency of the quantitative analysis method of the game process, the conflict resolution graph model analysis method is adjusted and applied to the nuclear crisis game analysis. The conflict resolution graph model analysis flow, related definition and matrix representation method are proposed, and the nuclear crisis conflict model based on historical data is constructed based on the Sino-Soviet nuclear crisis in 1969, and the game state evolution process is analyzed by matrix representation algorithm. The sensitivity analysis of game model is carried out by introducing two kinds of model parameters: game policy and military capability, and the alliance analysis method is used to identify the possible alliance of decision makers and its influence on the evolution of national relations. According to the model data analysis results, summarize the relevant conclusions and decision-making reference. The results show that the conflict analysis method is suitable for the study of nuclear crisis management and control, and the strategy matching military strength plays an important role in the evolution of crisis game.
【作者单位】：国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71501182,71671186)
【分类号】：D815.2

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