社会养老保险、养老期望与生育意愿

发布时间：2018-06-12 05:46

本文选题：社会养老保险 + 养老预期　；参考：《人口与发展》2017年04期

【摘要】：生育率低已成我国经济和社会发展的重大隐患,我国居民的生育意愿也因此而受到了政府相关部门和社会各界的特别关注。基于中国综合社会调查数据,利用Logit模型与Poisson模型,将生意意愿分为是否选择生育和生育子女数量两个方面,实证分析了社会养老保险、养老预期与生育意愿的关系。研究发现:第一,社会养老保险不仅显著降低了居民选择生育的概率,而且还降低了居民生育子女的数量;第二,不同养老预期对居民生育意愿影响不同,依靠子女养老与依靠政府养老对居民生育意愿分别起到了"挤入效应"与"挤出效应";第三,养老预期在社会养老保险与生育意愿的关系中起到了调节效应,依靠子女养老与依靠政府养老分别"缓解"与"强化"社会养老保险对居民生育意愿的负向影响,且这种效应主要体现在男性与农村群体。结合研究得出的观点与结论,探讨了本项研究的政策启示。
[Abstract]:The low fertility rate has become a major hidden danger in the economic and social development of our country. Therefore, the fertility will of the residents in our country has been paid special attention by the relevant government departments and all walks of life. Based on the comprehensive social survey data in China, this paper uses logit model and Poisson model to divide the business intention into two aspects: whether or not to choose to have children and the number of children. The relationship among social old-age insurance, pension expectation and fertility will be analyzed empirically. The study found that: first, social pension insurance not only significantly reduced the probability of residents to choose to have children, but also reduced the number of children. Second, different pension expectations have different effects on residents' fertility willingness. Relying on children to support the aged and relying on the government to provide for the aged has played a "crowding in" effect and "crowding out effect" on the residents' fertility intention. Thirdly, the pension expectation has played a regulatory role in the relationship between social pension insurance and fertility willingness. Depending on children to provide for the aged and depending on the government to provide for the aged, the negative effects of social endowment insurance on the fertility will of residents are alleviated and strengthened respectively, and this effect is mainly reflected in men and rural groups. Combined with the viewpoints and conclusions of the study, the policy implications of this study are discussed.
【作者单位】：武汉大学社会保障研究中心;
【分类号】：D669.6

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