住房限购政策和房价波动对离婚的影响

发布时间：2018-06-13 02:49

本文选题：婚姻稳定性 + 收入冲击　；参考：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国的住房市场发生了急剧的变化,住房价格的上升和下降都引起了一系列的经济问题,受到了来自社会各个阶层的广泛关注。房地产市场在国民经济中扮演着支柱经济的重要角色,在不同的宏观经济背景下,国家出台了一系列的房价调控政策。与此同时,中国的婚姻市场也不断发生变化。结婚数、离婚数、复婚数都有了不同程度的增长。在Becker(1977)所开创的婚姻经济学中,将离婚归纳为两个因素:婚姻错配和收入冲击,不过实证研究中却很难将两者的效应分离开。在中国,住房与婚姻密切相关,住房与家庭几乎是等价的。本文尝试研究中国的住房市场对婚姻稳定性的影响,即收入冲击这个因素对婚姻稳定性的影响。研究这一点的关键之处是将收入冲击与婚姻错配对离婚影响的效应剥离开来。本文运用了住房市场上的两个现象来证实收入冲击对离婚的影响:一个是2010年中国住房市场上的“限购”政策;另一个是住房市场上未预期到的价格波动。“限购”政策、住房价格未预期到的波动对婚姻都相当于外生的冲击,与婚姻匹配的质量是没有关系的,因此能够比较好的测量出收入冲击对离婚的影响。本文通过计量结果发现“限购”会使得所在地城市的离婚显著增加243对,相当于平均水平的4.5%,限购导致“假离婚现象”的产生,危害了婚姻的稳定性;且未预期到的房价波动也确实对离婚产生了正向的冲击,意料之外的房价每上涨10%,离婚增加4%。这些都说明了在中国,收入冲击对离婚有着显著的影响,这些收入冲击与住房市场密切相关,住房市场和婚姻市场密不可分。因此加强对住房市场的良好调控,有利于婚姻市场的稳定。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's housing market has undergone rapid changes, the rise and fall of housing prices have caused a series of economic problems, has been widely concerned by all sectors of society. The real estate market plays an important role in the national economy. Under the different macroeconomic background, the state has issued a series of housing price control policies. At the same time, China's marriage market is also constantly changing. The number of marriages, divorces, and remarriage have all increased to varying degrees. In the economics of marriage initiated by Beckerman in 1977, divorce is divided into two factors: marriage mismatch and income shock, but it is difficult to separate the two effects in empirical research. In China, housing and marriage are closely related, housing and family is almost equivalent. This paper attempts to study the impact of China's housing market on marriage stability, that is, the impact of income shock on marriage stability. The key to this study is to separate income shocks from the effects of marriage mismatches on divorce. This paper uses two phenomena in the housing market to prove the impact of income shock on divorce: one is the "limited purchase" policy in China's housing market in 2010; the other is the unexpected price fluctuation in the housing market. "restricted purchase" policy, housing prices unexpected fluctuations in marriage are equivalent to exogenous impact, and marriage matching quality is not related, so can better measure the impact of income shocks on divorce. Through the measurement results, it is found that "limited purchase" will significantly increase the number of divorces in the local city by 243 pairs, which is equivalent to the average level of 4.5 pairs. The phenomenon of "false divorce" is caused by the restriction of purchase, which endangers the stability of marriage. And unexpected fluctuations in house prices do have a positive impact on divorce, with unexpected price increases of 10 per cent and divorce by 4 per cent. All this shows that in China, income shock has a significant impact on divorce, these income shocks are closely related to the housing market, housing market and marriage market are inseparable. Therefore, strengthening the good regulation of the housing market is conducive to the stability of the marriage market.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23;D669.1

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