老年照料对子女就业的影响

发布时间：2018-06-19 13:22

本文选题：老龄化 + 老年照料　；参考：《华东交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会的逐步向前发展，人口老龄化问题日益突出。依据联合国对于老龄化社会的标准，我国早在1999年就已经进入了老龄社会，预计2015年，老年人口总数将达到2.21亿，占总人口的16%，人口老龄化的形势严峻。与人口老龄化共同发展的是老年人的照料问题日益严峻。尤其是我国传统家庭观念的影响，在加上社会养老资源的缺乏，家庭照料成为老年人照料的主要模式。本文主要对照料老年父母对子女就业状况的影响进行了探讨。首先运用文献研究的方法对国内外关于老年人照料方式、老年人照料者、以及老年照料对子女就业关系方面进行了文献综述，并且对于核心概念和相关理论进行概述，以此作为本文研究的理论基础。为了找到更适用于研究老年照料对子女就业影响的模型,本文着重研究Logistic回归模型和线性概率模型(OLS)及离散选择Probit模型的基本原理，以“中国营养与健康调查”（CHNS）为样本进行对比研究,重点利用比较与归纳相结合的研究方法，，对这两个模型的有效性进行对比并归纳总结。在探讨老年照料对子女就业影响的过程中，使用Logistic回归模型，并借助倾向值加权的方法对回归模型进行了稳健性检验。回归结果表明，虚拟拟合效果较好，但不是很满意。因此我们使用线性概率模型(OLS)及离散选择Probit模型，选取“父母是否需要照护”和“兄弟姐妹数”两个有效工具变量进行两阶段最小二乘估计及工具变量Probit回归，通过Durbin-Wu-Hausman检验证明内生性确实存在，回归结果表明，Logistic回归模型在对本文研究样本的有效性上总体来说不如线性概率模型(OLS)及离散选择Probit模型。在控制其他变量的情况下，子女老年照料者总体上相比非照料者有较低的劳动参与率，女性子女老年照料者的劳动参与率普遍低于男性子女老年照料者。最后,根据上述分析结果,提出本文的研究结论,并结合实际情况针对性的提出相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the progressive development of the society, the problem of population aging has become increasingly prominent. According to the standards of the United Nations for the aging society, China has entered an aging society in 1999. It is expected that in 2015, the total population of the aged will reach 221 million, 16% of the total population, and the age of the population is grim. The common development of the population with the population aging is the same. The care problem of the elderly is becoming more and more serious. Especially the influence of traditional family concept in our country, and the lack of social endowment resources, family care has become the main model for the care of the elderly.
This paper mainly discusses the influence of the elderly parents on the employment status of their children. First, the literature review is used to make a literature review on the care of the elderly, the caregivers of the elderly, and the relationship between the elderly care for their children, and the core concepts and related theories. For the theoretical basis of this study, in order to find a more suitable model for the impact of elderly care on the employment of children, this paper focuses on the basic principles of Logistic regression model and linear probability model (OLS) and discrete choice Probit model. The comparative study on "China Nutrition and health survey" (CHNS) is a comparative study, focusing on the comparison. The effectiveness of the two models is compared and summarized. The Logistic regression model is used in the process of the influence of elderly care on children's employment, and the robustness of the regression model is tested with the weight weighted method. The regression results show that the effect of virtual fitting is good, but it is not good. So we use the linear probability model (OLS) and the discrete choice Probit model, select two effective tool variables, "whether parents need care" and "siblings number", carry out two stage least square estimation and tool variable Probit regression, and verify the existence of endogeneity by Durbin-Wu-Hausman test, and return the result table. In general, the Logistic regression model is less effective than the linear probability model (OLS) and the discrete choice Probit model. In the case of controlling other variables, the children and elderly caregivers generally have lower labor participation rate compared with non caregivers, and the labor participation rate of female children in the elderly is generally lower than that of the non caregivers. A male child and an elderly caregiver.
Finally, according to the above analysis results, the conclusions of this study are put forward, and relevant policy recommendations are put forward pertinent to the actual situation.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D669.2;F249.2

【参考文献】