乌克兰危机视角下的北约与俄罗斯地缘安全博弈
发布时间：2018-08-01 12:17
【摘要】：北约与俄罗斯地缘安全博弈在乌克兰问题上得到了最明显的表现,在某种程度上可以说乌克兰危机就是双方博弈的产物。苏联解体在欧洲大陆上释放了大片地缘政治空间,北约与俄罗斯不约而同的在这片宽广的地缘真空带争夺势力范围,而乌克兰恰好位于两大地缘力量的中间地带,成为地缘上的"支轴"国家。受此影响,乌克兰独立后的国家安全战略一直在"东"与"西"之间摇摆不定,"中立"与"不结盟"的对外政策基本原则没有真正落实。乌克兰历任总统对国家安全战略定位差别明显,其对外战略的变化受到两大地缘力量的牵制并对国内政治产生重大影响,危机的爆发不仅破坏了乌克兰国家领土主权的完整,也对欧洲地区的安全产生威胁。北约与俄罗斯之间存在结构性矛盾,矛盾根源在于双方在欧洲安全体系构建上存在根本分歧。北约在冷战思维的指导下,以"弱俄""遏俄"为目标,追求成为未来欧洲安全体系的主导,为此接二连三的向中东欧地区扩大、甚至意图染指独联体国家。而俄罗斯则将独联体看作是恢复世界大国地位的重要"地缘依托"、将中东欧地区视为俄罗斯与西方的"缓冲带",认为北约没有存在的必要,主张与西方建立泛欧的安全体系,俄罗斯在其中发挥大国作用。认知上的冲突导致双方地缘安全博弈的升级,乌克兰的特殊地缘位置及其摇摆不定的对外战略成为双方博弈的焦点。最终,乌克兰在双方的博弈中由国内的政治危机滑向国际冲突,北约与俄罗斯在欧洲地缘势力范围的争夺趋向白热化。鉴此,本文通过梳理乌克兰国家对外战略的变化及北约与俄罗斯在地缘安全博弈中对乌克兰政策的变化得出几点结论:一是,乌克兰地理位置具有的重要地缘价值及其地缘战略的不确定性成为大国干预焦点,乌克兰危机的解决未来存在一定的变数;二是,北约与俄罗斯的结构性矛盾在可见的将来仍会存在,欧洲的地缘安全形势不容乐观;三是,新安全观对推动双方甚至国际安全合作、解决双方安全冲突具有重要借鉴意义,符合世界潮流、历史规律。总之,北约与俄罗斯在欧洲大陆上的地缘安全博弈仍将持续。
[Abstract]:NATO and Russia's geo-security game has got the most obvious manifestation on the Ukraine question. To some extent, the crisis of Ukraine is the result of the game between the two sides. The collapse of the Soviet Union has unleashed a vast geopolitical space on the European continent, with NATO and Russia competing for a sphere of influence in this broad geopolitical vacuum zone, while Ukraine happens to be in the middle of the two major geopolitical forces. To become a geopolitical "pivot" country. Affected by this, Ukraine's national security strategy after independence has been wobbling between "east" and "west", and the basic principles of "neutrality" and "non-alignment" have not really been implemented. Ukraine's successive presidents have distinct differences in the orientation of their national security strategies, and the changes in their foreign strategies have been constrained by two major geopolitical forces and have had a significant impact on domestic politics. The outbreak of the crisis has not only undermined the integrity of Ukraine's national territory and sovereignty, It also poses a threat to the security of the European region. There is a structural contradiction between NATO and Russia, which is rooted in fundamental differences between the two sides on the construction of a European security system. Under the guidance of the Cold War mentality, NATO, aiming at "weak Russia" and "repressing Russia", seeks to become the dominant European security system in the future. For this reason, NATO has been expanding to Central and Eastern Europe one after another, and even intends to become a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russia, on the other hand, regards the CIS as an important "geographical basis" for restoring its status as a world power, regards the Central and Eastern Europe region as a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West, and considers that NATO does not have to exist, and advocates the establishment of a pan-European security system with the West. Russia plays a major role in it. The cognitive conflict leads to the escalation of the geo-security game between the two sides, and Ukraine's special geographical position and its wobbly foreign strategy become the focus of the game. In the end, in the game between Ukraine and Russia, the domestic political crisis slid to the international conflict, and the rivalry between NATO and Russia in the geographical sphere of influence in Europe became more and more intense. In view of this, this paper draws several conclusions by combing the changes in Ukraine's foreign strategy and the changes in NATO and Russia's policy towards Ukraine in the geopolitical security game: first, The important geo-value of Ukraine's geographical location and the uncertainty of its geo-strategy have become the focus of intervention by the major powers, and there are certain variables in the future for the solution of the crisis in Ukraine; second, The structural contradiction between NATO and Russia will still exist in the foreseeable future, and the geopolitical security situation in Europe is not optimistic. Third, the new security concept has important significance for the promotion of bilateral and even international security cooperation and the resolution of security conflicts between the two sides. In line with the world trend, historical law. All in all, NATO and Russia's geo-security game on the European continent will continue.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D851.13;D851.2;E161
[Abstract]:NATO and Russia's geo-security game has got the most obvious manifestation on the Ukraine question. To some extent, the crisis of Ukraine is the result of the game between the two sides. The collapse of the Soviet Union has unleashed a vast geopolitical space on the European continent, with NATO and Russia competing for a sphere of influence in this broad geopolitical vacuum zone, while Ukraine happens to be in the middle of the two major geopolitical forces. To become a geopolitical "pivot" country. Affected by this, Ukraine's national security strategy after independence has been wobbling between "east" and "west", and the basic principles of "neutrality" and "non-alignment" have not really been implemented. Ukraine's successive presidents have distinct differences in the orientation of their national security strategies, and the changes in their foreign strategies have been constrained by two major geopolitical forces and have had a significant impact on domestic politics. The outbreak of the crisis has not only undermined the integrity of Ukraine's national territory and sovereignty, It also poses a threat to the security of the European region. There is a structural contradiction between NATO and Russia, which is rooted in fundamental differences between the two sides on the construction of a European security system. Under the guidance of the Cold War mentality, NATO, aiming at "weak Russia" and "repressing Russia", seeks to become the dominant European security system in the future. For this reason, NATO has been expanding to Central and Eastern Europe one after another, and even intends to become a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russia, on the other hand, regards the CIS as an important "geographical basis" for restoring its status as a world power, regards the Central and Eastern Europe region as a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West, and considers that NATO does not have to exist, and advocates the establishment of a pan-European security system with the West. Russia plays a major role in it. The cognitive conflict leads to the escalation of the geo-security game between the two sides, and Ukraine's special geographical position and its wobbly foreign strategy become the focus of the game. In the end, in the game between Ukraine and Russia, the domestic political crisis slid to the international conflict, and the rivalry between NATO and Russia in the geographical sphere of influence in Europe became more and more intense. In view of this, this paper draws several conclusions by combing the changes in Ukraine's foreign strategy and the changes in NATO and Russia's policy towards Ukraine in the geopolitical security game: first, The important geo-value of Ukraine's geographical location and the uncertainty of its geo-strategy have become the focus of intervention by the major powers, and there are certain variables in the future for the solution of the crisis in Ukraine; second, The structural contradiction between NATO and Russia will still exist in the foreseeable future, and the geopolitical security situation in Europe is not optimistic. Third, the new security concept has important significance for the promotion of bilateral and even international security cooperation and the resolution of security conflicts between the two sides. In line with the world trend, historical law. All in all, NATO and Russia's geo-security game on the European continent will continue.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D851.13;D851.2;E161
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