中东剧变以来摩洛哥正义与发展党研究

发布时间：2018-08-07 18:37

【摘要】：本文首先分析了摩洛哥国内的政治格局,以及王室与温和伊斯兰力量之间的关系。摩洛哥实行君主立宪制,但实际属于君主专制,建立在神权统治思想基础上的王室牢牢掌控着摩洛哥的最高宗教权力和政治权力。“真主、国家和国王”是根植于政体中的三大不可动摇要素,正义与发展党由于其伊斯兰背景长期遭受王室打压,但得益于该党不断调整指导思想和组织结构,谋求政治合法性和参与国内的政治活动,逐渐获得王室认可,上升为摩洛哥国内一股不可忽视的政治力量。特别是2011年和2016年两次议会选举的胜利,让正义与发展党成为摩洛哥的第一大党。而左翼政党(如独立党)在独立后因试图建立民族主义国家而被王室打压,执政表现不佳,民意支持不断下滑。保皇政党因真实与现代党的加入势力逐渐上升,特别是2016年选举后。全国力量社会主义联盟在议会中的席位数虽然在减少,但其作为联合政府的拉拢对象努力建立一个以自己为中心的集团以对抗正义与发展党。而真实与现代党在议会中的席位数不断增加,甚至接近正义与发展党的席位数,其实力不容小觑。因此,当前摩洛哥国内呈现出以温和伊斯兰力量为主导,左翼力量下降,保皇力量逐渐上升的局面。其次,本文重点对2011年“阿拉伯之春”发生以后正义与发展党的发展情况进行考察。通过回顾“阿拉伯之春”事件、宪法改革和议会选举,分析正义与发展党在议会选举中的竞选方针,如继续机构建设、民主建设和反腐;建设富强、有竞争力、多产和保障社会公平的国民经济;以强大的家庭、受尊重的妇女和杰出的青年为支柱,以特色学校和尊严为基础,建设团结互助的繁荣社会;在伊斯兰渊源和摩洛哥身份的基础上复兴和更新纯正的摩洛哥价值观等,进而探究其竞选获胜的意义。正义与发展党的胜利不仅证明了该党理念和方针的正确性,还加强了王室的合法性,树立了一个民主的摩洛哥国家形象,增强了选举结果的权威性。本文还分别分析了正义与发展党在两次议会选举中获胜的原因。2011年议会选举中,正义与发展党出色的表现不仅依靠外部环境带来的机遇,如“阿拉伯之春”带来的改革潮流、国内“和平”稳定的过渡环境、国王主动改革的决心等,更依靠自身长期的努力、严格的组织和民主管理、务实的作风、清白的从政经历和满足人民需求的改革方案。同样,在2016年的议会选举中,正义与发展党再次获胜,除上述提到的部分原因外,该党在任期内的出色表现、长期以来与王室合作而不冲突的立场和反对派的虚弱也是其获胜的原因。同时,本文还研究了正义与发展党在2016年选举中获胜的影响。对于摩洛哥国内来说,正义与发展党的胜利再次彰显了摩洛哥的民主进步,维护了国内的政治稳定,倒逼其他弱势反对派参与联合政府,也为正义与发展党的未来执政提出了更大的挑战。而对于周边地区,特别是西亚北非地区来说,正义与发展党的二次胜利,向其他国家的伊斯兰力量证明了这种模式是正确可行的,即脱离原教旨主义思想,淡化组织的宗教身份,采取温和务实的方针政策,向世俗化方向不断努力,成为一个现代化的民主合法组织,获取民众的支持,在选举中取得胜利,获得权力和安全保障。最后,本文对正义与发展党未来的发展趋势进行了展望。正义与发展党的第二个任期面临的挑战更为严峻,不仅要处理好新政府的组建,制定清晰的政府工作计划,更要在下一次选举到来之前处理好尚未完成的改革问题,积极落实宪法条款,借助民众的力量争取更大的执政权。
[Abstract]:This article first analyzes the political pattern in Morocco and the relationship between the royal family and the mildly Islamic power. Morocco implements the constitutional monarchy, but it actually belongs to the monarchy. The royal family, based on the thought of theocracy, firmly controls the supreme religious and political power of Morocco. "Allah, the state and the king". It is the three unshakable element rooted in the political system. The Party of justice and development has been subjected to the royal family for a long time because of its Islamic background, but it has benefited from the party's continuous adjustment of guiding ideology and organizational structure, the pursuit of political legitimacy and participation in domestic political activities, and the gradual acquisition of Royal recognition and an unnegligible government in Morocco. The victory of the two parliamentary elections in 2011 and 2016 made the Party of justice and development become the largest party in Morocco. The left wing party (such as the independent party) was suppressed by the royal family in an attempt to establish a nationalist country after independence. After the 2016 elections, especially after the 2016 election, the number of seats in the parliament of the national strength Socialist Union was decreasing, but as a close object of the coalition government, it tried to establish a group of its own centered to fight the justice and development party. The strength of the seat number of the Party of justice and development can not be underestimated. Therefore, the current situation in Morocco is dominated by the mildly Islamic force, the left wing strength is declining, and the power of the emperor is rising gradually. Secondly, this article focuses on the investigation of the development of justice and development party after the "Arabia spring" in 2011. The Arabia spring event, constitutional reform and parliamentary elections to analyze the policy of the justice and development party in the parliamentary elections, such as continuing the construction of institutions, democratic construction and anti-corruption; building a strong, competitive, productive and social equity national economy; a strong family, respected women and outstanding young people as a pillar and characteristics. On the basis of school and dignity, building a prosperous society of solidarity and mutual assistance, reviving and renewing pure Morocco values on the basis of Islamic origin and Morocco identity, and further exploring the significance of its election victory. The victory of justice and development party not only proves the correctness of the party's ideas and principles, but also strengthens the legitimacy of the royal family. A democratic Morocco national image has been established to enhance the authority of the election results. This paper also analyzes the reasons why justice and Development Party won in the two parliamentary elections in the.2011 parliamentary election, the outstanding performance of justice and development party not only depends on the opportunities brought by the external environment, such as the reform brought by the "Arabia spring". The trend, the domestic "peaceful" and stable transition environment, the determination of the king's initiative to reform, and more relying on its own long-term efforts, strict organizational and democratic management, practical work style, clear political experience and the reform plan to meet the needs of the people. In the 2016 parliamentary elections, the justice and Development Party won again, in addition to the above mentioned In part, in part, the party's outstanding performance in term of office, the position of long-term cooperation with the royal family, and the weakness of the opposition are also the reasons for its victory. At the same time, this article also studies the effect of the victory of the justice and development party in the 2016 election. For Morocco, the victory of justice and Development Party has shown the Moro again. The democratic progress of the brother, maintaining political stability at home and forcing other disadvantaged opposition parties to participate in the coalition government, has also challenged the future ruling of justice and development party. For the surrounding areas, especially in North Africa, the two victory of justice and development has been proved to the Islamic forces in other countries. The model is correct and feasible, that is, to break away from the fundamentalist ideology, to weaken the religious identity of the organization, to adopt a gentle and pragmatic policy, to make continuous efforts in the direction of the secularization of the world, to become a modern and democratic and legitimate organization, to obtain the support of the people, to win in the election, to gain power and security. Finally, this article is on justice and development. The development trend of the party's future is looked forward to. The challenges facing the second term of justice and development party are more severe, not only to deal with the formation of the new government, to make clear government work plans, but to deal with the unfinished reform problems before the next election, to actively implement the constitutional provisions and to fight with the power of the people. Take a greater power in power.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D815.4

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