大国安全竞争与东南亚国家的地区战略转变

发布时间：2019-01-14 07:43

【摘要】：外部大国之间的互动塑造着东南亚地区秩序,影响该地区中小国家的战略选择。与大国对立强化或削弱东南亚国家作用的传统观点不同,作者认为,大国间安全竞争对东南亚国家对外战略的影响会在"有利"和"不利"之间相互转化。战略空间是这一影响机制中的核心要素。大国竞争的加剧对战略空间大小的影响不仅是逐步实现的,而且会产生差异化的结果。当大国在特定地区和议题上进入包容性竞争时,相关东南亚国家的战略空间将变得充裕,大国平衡战略更有可能成为它们的选择。而包容性竞争加剧后,大国在原有议题上的竞争更加激烈,同时竞争覆盖比以往更大的地理范围和更多的议题领域。与原有议题相关或处在核心地区的国家的战略空间将被挤压。而包容性竞争拓展到的新地区和议题将使之前未参与大国竞争的国家开始成为被争取的对象,拥有比从前更大的战略空间。一旦大国竞争向全面对抗或战争过渡,多数东南亚国家的战略空间将被显著压缩,"选边站"的压力将会大幅增加。
[Abstract]:The interaction between the outside powers shapes the order of Southeast Asia and influences the strategic choice of the small and medium-sized countries in the region. Different from the traditional view that the role of Southeast Asian countries is strengthened or weakened by the opposition of the great powers, the author holds that the influence of the security competition among the great powers on the foreign strategy of the Southeast Asian countries will be transformed between "favorable" and "unfavorable". Strategic space is the core element of this influence mechanism. The influence of the aggravation of the big country competition on the strategic space is not only realized gradually, but also produces the result of differentiation. When big countries enter inclusive competition in specific regions and issues, the strategic space of relevant Southeast Asian countries will become abundant, and the strategy of great power balance is more likely to be their choice. However, with the intensification of inclusive competition, the competition between big countries on the original issues is more intense, and the competition covers more geographical areas and more topic areas than ever before. The strategic space of countries related to the original issues or located in the core region will be squeezed. And the new areas and issues of inclusive competition will make the countries that have not participated in the big power competition to be the target of competition and have more strategic space than before. Once the big powers compete towards full-scale confrontation or war, the strategic space of most Southeast Asian countries will be significantly reduced, and the pressure of "side selection" will increase significantly.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院;
【基金】：对外经济贸易大学中国企业“走出去”协同创新中心科研项目“‘走出去’战略对‘一带一路’国家的政治经济影响研究”(项目编号:201504YY004A)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D815

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