老龄化对我国养老保险支出的影响

发布时间：2018-02-16 01:29

本文关键词： 老龄化养老保险人口预测　出处：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化是指人口生育率降低和人均寿命延长导致的总人口中年轻人口数量减少、老年人口比例增长的现象,对社会发展有着深远的影响。此外,老龄化加剧了社会的养老负担,对现行养老保障体系的发展完善提出了更高的要求。根据最新的人口普查结果,我国65岁及以上和60岁及以上人口占比分别为8.87%和13.26%,均已达到联合国对老龄化的界定。与发达国家不同的是,我国的老龄化有着未富先老、老龄人口基数大,发展速度快等特点,并且随着医疗水平和人均寿命的不断提高,高龄化趋势进一步加强。养老保险是社会保障体系里重要的环节,直接影响着老龄人口的晚年生活,以及社会的稳定,因此研究老龄化对养老保险支出水平的影响具有理论和现实意义。本文从我国老龄化现状以及养老保险制度的发展阶段为切入点,重点分析了老龄化水平(本文以老年抚养比衡量老龄化水平)对养老保险支出的影响,结果显示,老龄化水平与养老保险支出存在高度的正相关关系,同时在采用动态模型的基础上,发现养老保险支出水平的惯性较大。在分析了老龄化对养老保险支出水平的影响后,本文对未来人口规模及年龄结构进行了预测,结合老龄化水平对养老保险支出的影响分析,对短期未来的养老保险支出水平做了预测,结果表明,养老保险金的收支压力在老龄化程度加深的未来面临更大的挑战,到2020年,养老保险支出水平为4.34%,到2050年将达6.89%。本文试图解决的关键问题在于老龄化对养老保险支出水平的影响程度以及未来养老保险的支出测算,通过比较国外解决老龄化给养老带来诸多问题的应对策略,本文给出了如下的政策建议:第一、完善我国的退休政策,从延迟退休年龄和提高缴费年限两方面来提高老年人力资本的利用率以及退休后的福利待遇;第二、平衡城镇和农村的养老保险待遇水平,保障农村贫困人口的老年基本生活;第三、鼓励补充性养老保险的发展,以减轻政府压力;第四,增加养老基金的投资渠道,以实现基金的增值保值。
[Abstract]:Population ageing refers to the decline in the number of young people and the increase in the proportion of older persons in the total population as a result of lower fertility and longer life expectancy, with far-reaching implications for social development. The aging of the society has increased the burden of providing for the aged, putting forward higher requirements for the development and perfection of the current old-age security system. According to the latest census results, The proportion of the population aged 65 and above and over 60 in China is 8.87% and 13.26 respectively, both of which have reached the definition of aging in the United Nations. With the increasing of medical treatment and life expectancy, the aging trend is further strengthened. Pension insurance is an important part of the social security system, which directly affects the old people's life in their later years. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of aging on the level of pension insurance expenditure. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of the aging level (which is measured by the old-age dependency ratio) on the old-age insurance expenditure. The results show that there is a high positive correlation between the aging level and the old-age insurance expenditure. At the same time, based on the dynamic model, it is found that the level of endowment insurance expenditure is more inertial. After analyzing the influence of aging on the level of pension insurance expenditure, this paper forecasts the population size and age structure in the future. Based on the analysis of the influence of the aging level on the pension insurance expenditure, this paper forecasts the future pension expenditure level in the short term. The results show that the income and expenditure pressure of the pension fund is facing more challenges in the future with the deepening of the aging degree. By 2020, The expenditure level of old-age insurance is 4.34 and will reach 6.89 by 2050. The key problem that this paper tries to solve is the influence of aging on the expenditure level of pension insurance and the calculation of the expenditure of future pension insurance. By comparing the coping strategies of foreign countries to solve many problems brought about by aging, this paper gives the following policy suggestions: first, improve the retirement policy of our country. To improve the utilization rate of human capital and welfare treatment after retirement, to balance the level of old-age insurance between urban and rural areas, and to ensure the basic life of the poor in rural areas, to improve the utilization rate of human capital and welfare treatment after retirement from the aspects of delaying retirement age and raising contributory age. Third, encourage the development of supplementary old-age insurance to alleviate the pressure of the government; 4th, increase the investment channels of pension funds, in order to achieve the value of the fund.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C913.6;F842.67

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