中国县域农村人口空心化程度的测度及时空分异特征

发布时间：2018-02-22 12:49

本文关键词： 农村人口空心化时空分异县域　出处：《人口学刊》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从农村人口空心化的定义与内涵出发,选取流出人口比重、城镇化率、0~14岁少儿人口比重和65岁以上老年人口比重四个指标,采用综合测评法从县域尺度对中国1 995个县(市、旗)的农村人口空心化程度进行测度,运用核密度估计、ESDA-GIS等方法对其时空分异特征及其原因进行分析。研究表明2000年、2010年中国农村人口空心化指数均值分别为14.22、23.45,呈现时间上的动态大幅上升趋势,高值区主要为胡焕庸线以东区域以及黑—蒙北部,低值区集中于胡焕庸线附近、滇—藏南部以及川西地区;2000~2010年1 892个县(市、旗)农村人口空心化出现不同程度的恶化,103个县(市、旗)农村人口空心化有所改善。中国农村人口空心化程度呈现西—东、南—北加剧的空间格局,南北向农村人口空心化程度差异大于东西向。2000年、2010年中国农村人口空心化程度全局Moran’s I分别为0.615 2、0.616 5,存在全局空间强自相关特征,空间集聚趋势有所加强,区域差异正逐步拉大。高—高型集聚区域从沿海地区向内陆川渝地区、皖豫交接区域扩展,北部高—高型集聚趋缓,不同聚类区域农村人口空心化程度内部异质性有所加强。地方政府应从当地实际出发,在就业扶持、信贷支持、宅基地使用、社会保障及教育医疗等方面多管齐下,破解农村人口空心化困局。
[Abstract]:Based on the definition and connotation of rural population emptiness, this paper selects four indicators: the proportion of outflow population, the urbanization rate of children aged 14 years and the proportion of elderly population over 65 years old. The hollowing degree of rural population in 1,995 counties (cities and banners) in China was measured by comprehensive evaluation method from the county scale. The characteristics of spatial and temporal differentiation and its causes are analyzed by using the methods of nuclear density estimation (ESDA-GIS). The results show that in 2000 and 2010, the average value of hollowness index of rural population in China was 14.22 ~ 23.45, showing a dynamic and increasing trend in time. The high value area is mainly the area east of Hu Huanyong line and the northern part of Black Mongolia, the low value area is concentrated near Hu Huanyong line, there are 1 892 counties (cities) in southern Yunnan and Tibet and western Sichuan from 2000 to 2010. The hollowness of rural population has deteriorated to varying degrees, and the hollowness of the rural population has improved in 103 counties (cities and banners). The degree of population hollowing in rural areas in China is characterized by a spatial pattern intensified from the west to the east and from the south to the north. In 2000, the global Moran's I of China's rural population in 2010 was 0.615 2 ~ 0.616 5, respectively. There was a strong autocorrelation in global space, and the trend of spatial agglomeration was strengthened. The regional difference is gradually widening. The high-high type agglomeration area extends from the coastal area to the inland Sichuan and Chongqing area, the transition region between Anhui and Henan extends, and the northern high-high type agglomeration slows down. The internal heterogeneity of rural population hollowing degree in different cluster areas has been strengthened. Local governments should proceed from the local reality, and should be multi-pronged in employment support, credit support, homestead use, social security, education and medical treatment, and so on. Solving the problem of rural population hollowing out.
【作者单位】：湖南大学经济与贸易学院;暨南大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目:基于农户视角的空心村形成机理与治理机制创新研究(12BGL102)
【分类号】：C924.2

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