延迟退休视角下我国居民储蓄率的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 07:37

本文关键词： 延迟退休工作期退休期收入不确定性支出不确定性居民储蓄率　出处：《广东财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国经济高速增长与居民高储蓄率和低消费率共存的现象,一直倍受社会各界的广泛关注。高储蓄低消费对我国资本结构的优化以及经济的持续发展存在不利影响。随着我国人口老龄化加剧、预期寿命以及受教育年限延长,延迟退休制度预期通过居民的工作期时长、退休期时长、收入不确定性以及支出不确定性,间接影响我国居民储蓄率。本文基于延迟退休视角,研究我国居民储蓄率的影响因素,研究结果有助于政策制定者全面评估延迟退休年龄政策可能带来的影响。本文首先从理论角度研究延迟退休年龄(工作期时长、退休期时长、收入不确定性以及支出不确定性)对我国居民储蓄率的影响。其次,运用2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年我国30个省市自治区(重庆不在内)的面板数据建立动态面板模型,采用系统广义矩估计(GMM)方法研究延迟退休年龄对我国居民储蓄率的影响,用分位数回归法检验回归结果的稳健性与可靠性。研究结果表明,在不引入其他控制变量情况下,预期寿命、收入不确定性以及支出不确定性对居民储蓄率在1%的显著性水平下均存在相关关系,受教育年限的变动与居民储蓄率不存在相关关系。在控制人口结构变量(少年儿童抚养比、老年人口抚养比)、养老保险制度变量(养老保险覆盖面、养老保险金规模)、城乡二元结构变量(城乡居民收入差距、城镇化进程)以及宏观经济变量(实际利率、人均收入增长率)因素后,收入不确定性、支出不确定性以及受教育年限对居民储蓄率的影响均不显著,预期寿命对居民储蓄率在1%显著性水平下显著。通过研究结果得出相关结论,从延迟退休方面来看,在法定退休制度下,预期寿命延长增加退休期时长,受教育年限延长缩短工作期时长,而延迟退休年龄缩短退休期时长,因此,延迟退休年龄有助于缓解工作期缩短、退休期延长对居民储蓄率的影响,从而降低居民储蓄率,同时,延迟退休带来收入支出的不确定性降低居民储蓄率。由此可知,延迟退休能够有效地降低我国居民储蓄率;从人口结构方面,老年人口抚养比对居民储蓄率呈负效应;从养老保险制度方面,养老保险金规模越广泛居民储蓄率越高;从城乡二元结构方面,加快城镇化进程有利于降低我国居民储蓄率;从宏观经济方面,经济的快速发展人均收入增加,驱使当下中国居民储蓄攀升。政策建议,第一,鼓励推行延迟退休政策;第二,加快城镇化进程,提高农村居民收入,缩小城乡居民收入差距;第三,政府应该完善规范金融市场和资本市场;第四,明确养老保险改革的重心;第五,完善社会保障体系,降低居民未来不确定性预期;第六,刺激消费者的消费欲望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid economic growth and the coexistence of high savings rate and low consumption rate of residents in China, High savings and low consumption have adverse effects on the optimization of capital structure and the sustainable development of economy in China. With the aging of our population, life expectancy and education years are prolonged. The delayed retirement system is expected to affect the savings rate indirectly through the length of the resident's working period, the length of the retirement period, the uncertainty of income and the uncertainty of expenditure. This paper studies the influencing factors of the resident savings rate in China, and the results are helpful for the policy makers to evaluate the possible impact of the delayed retirement age policy. Firstly, this paper studies the delayed retirement age (working time, long retirement period) from a theoretical point of view. Secondly, using the panel data of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2010 to establish the dynamic panel model, which is based on the income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty. The system generalized moment estimator (GMMM) is used to study the effect of late retirement age on the savings rate of Chinese residents, and the quantile regression method is used to test the robustness and reliability of the regression results. The results show that, without introducing other control variables, the stability and reliability of the regression results are tested. Life expectancy, income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty are all related to the household savings rate at the significant level of 1%. There is no correlation between the change of schooling years and the saving rate of residents. In controlling the population structure variables (the dependency ratio of children and adolescents, the dependency ratio of the elderly population), the variables of the old-age insurance system (the coverage of the pension insurance, Pension insurance scale, urban-rural dual structure variables (urban-rural income gap, urbanization process) and macroeconomic variables (real interest rate, per capita income growth rate) factors, income uncertainty, The uncertainty of expenditure and the effect of years of education on the savings rate of residents are not significant, and life expectancy has a significant effect on the savings rate of residents at the level of 1%. Through the results of the study, the relevant conclusions are drawn, and from the point of view of delayed retirement, Under the statutory retirement system, extended life expectancy increases the length of the retirement period, increases the number of years of schooling and shortens the length of the working period, while the delay in the retirement age shortens the length of the retirement period, thus helping to mitigate the shortening of the working period, At the same time, the uncertainty of income and expenditure caused by delayed retirement can reduce the savings rate of residents, which shows that the delay of retirement can effectively reduce the savings rate of residents in China. In terms of population structure, the dependency ratio of the elderly population has a negative effect on the resident savings rate; from the aspect of the old-age insurance system, the broader the scale of pension insurance, the higher the resident savings rate; from the dual structure of urban and rural areas, Speeding up the process of urbanization is conducive to reducing the savings rate of residents in China; from the macroeconomic point of view, the rapid development of the economy increases per capita income, which drives the current increase in household savings in China. Policy recommendations, first, encourage the implementation of the policy of delayed retirement; second, Speed up the urbanization process, increase the income of rural residents, narrow the income gap between urban and rural residents; third, the government should perfect and standardize the financial market and capital market; 4th, clear the focus of pension insurance reform; 5th, improve the social security system, Reduce the future uncertainty of residents; 6th, stimulate consumer consumption desire.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2;F126.1

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