北京市适应气候变化信息建模研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 23:43

本文关键词： 敏感性分析决策支持系统计量经济模型气象因素岭回归　出处：《北京林业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究了北京市行业经济对气象条件变化的敏感性,并构建了一个以模型库、数据库、知识库为主要内容的北京市适应气候变化决策支持系统。对于敏感性分析内容,利用12年(2002-2013)经济和气象的历史数据,分析了北京市各行业经济产出对气象因素变化的敏感性。通过改进Cobb-Douglas (C-D)生产函数这一计量经济模型,建立了气象因素变化和行业经济产出之间的数量因果关系；采用岭回归模型对北京的行业经济-气象系统要素进行敏感性分析,得到了北京地区各行业对气象条件的敏感性排名。其中,建筑业、批发零售业和金融业对气象条件变化表现出高敏感性,而农业对气象条件变化的敏感性最低；从高到低依次为：建筑业(0.4995)、批发与零售业(0.4176)、金融业(0.2933)、交通运输仓储和邮政业(0.2806)、工业(0.2799)、住宿和餐饮业(0.2710)、卫生与社会保障和社会福利业(0.2691)、文化体育和娱乐业(0.2607)、农业(0.2537)。通过分析行业经济对气象因素变化的敏感性,有利于北京政府理解这些影响并科学地进行产业结构调整和资源格局优化。研究结果表明,岭回归获得的结果更加符合北京地区行业经济发展的实际情况。北京市适应气候变化决策支持系统中包含了北京市常见灾害预测预警模型库、敏捷性分析的数据库、适应气候变化的知识库。将Bootstrap前端框架、Laravel后台框架、数据可视化开源方案共同应用到决策分析系统架构中,达到优化系统结构和增强用户体验的目的。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the sensitivity of the industry economy of Beijing to the change of meteorological conditions, and constructs a decision support system for climate change adaptation in Beijing, which takes model base, database and knowledge base as the main contents. Based on the historical data of economy and meteorology from 12 years to 2002-2013, the sensitivity of economic output of various industries in Beijing to the change of meteorological factors is analyzed. By improving the econometric model of Cobb-Douglas C-D production function, The quantitative causality between meteorological factors and industry economic output is established, and the sensitivity analysis of industry economic-meteorological system elements in Beijing is carried out by using ridge regression model. The sensitivities of various industries to meteorological conditions in Beijing are obtained. Among them, construction, wholesale, retail and financial sectors are highly sensitive to changes in meteorological conditions, while agriculture is the least sensitive to changes in meteorological conditions. The order from high to low is: construction industry 0.4995, wholesale and retail trade 0.4176, finance 0.2933, transportation, storage and post office 0.2806, industry 0.2799 999, accommodation and catering 0.2710, health and social security and social welfare 0.2691, cultural, sports and entertainment 0.2607, agriculture 0.25377.The order is as follows: construction industry 0.4995, wholesale and retail trade 0.4176, finance 0.2933, transportation, storage and post office 0.2806, industry 0.2799 9, accommodation and catering 0.2710, health and social security and social welfare 0.2691, cultural, sports and entertainment 0.2607, agriculture 0.2537. By analyzing the sensitivity of the industry economy to changes in meteorological factors, It is helpful for the Beijing government to understand these influences and to scientifically adjust the industrial structure and optimize the resource pattern. The results obtained by Ling regression are more in line with the actual situation of the economic development of the industry in Beijing. The decision support system for climate change adaptation in Beijing contains a model base for forecasting and early warning of common disasters in Beijing, a database for agility analysis, The Bootstrap front-end framework and the data visualization open source scheme are applied to the decision analysis system architecture to optimize the system structure and enhance the user experience.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;P467

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