社会保障对居民消费需求影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 19:48

本文选题：社会保障　切入点：居民收入　出处：《江西财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2008年以来，世界经济经受了和平时期以来最为严重的经济衰退，经济危机很快席卷了整个世界。大批发达经济体都已经进入经济萧条期，，其他经济体的经济发展也开始急剧放缓。在金融危机背景下，我国国内需求成为拉动经济的焦点，而居民消费又成为拉动内需的重要组成部分。根据当前的经济发展形势分析，我国只有通过扩大内需来拉升经济增长。然而，由于我国当前社会保障正处于加快建设阶段，相对而言并不完善，造成大多居民为了应付养老、医疗等不确定性因素，而减少消费、增加预防储蓄，对我国居民消费产生了重大影响。为了有效扩大我国居民消费需求，本文以定性和定量分析方法研究社会保障对居民消费的影响。分析结果表明，社会保障对居民消费有正的相关性，完善社会保障能够刺激我国居民消费。为此，论文引入凯恩斯预期消费理论为研究的理论基础，从我国当前居民消费现状以及各种影响消费因素入手，定性的描述社会保障和消费的影响状况，再结合相关的时间序列数据进行数量分析。本文用四部分来论证文章论点。第一部分阐述近年来国内外学者在这方面的研究，并对相关文献进行了回顾和总结，表明了全文的写题思路和大致观点。第二部分分析我国消费的现状以及原因，通过对消费结构以及消费层次的分析来表明当前我国消费的现状。扩大我国内需、提高居民消费，其实也就是在努力提高居民生活水平，关系到居民的民生问题。该部分强调社会保障能够降低居民预防性储蓄，提高居民消费。第三部分从我国当前经济形势出发，选取适合我国经济的理论基础，利用回归模型研究我国社会保障与居民消费的相关性。选取1996年—2011年中国城镇居民的养老和医疗保障数据，以养老金和医疗保险金的支出以及城镇居民消费的支出为自变量和变量，建立回归模型证实社会保障对居民消费的影响。从而以理论和实证相结合的方法论证了完善社会保障能够扩大内需的必要性。第四部分在前几部分基础分析后，提出促进居民消费，扩大内需的建议：有效提高居民收入，改善居民消费观念；继续扩大社会保障覆盖面，增加居民即期消费；完善社保卡的消费功能提高居民消费；充分发挥社会保障基金促进消费增长的作用；同时还建议发展与社会保障相关的服务业，提高居民生活质量；发挥地方政府财政作用，带动农村消费市场。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, the world economy has experienced its worst recession in peacetime, and the economic crisis has quickly swept the world. A large number of developed economies have entered a period of depression. The economic development of other economies has also begun to slow sharply. Against the background of the financial crisis, China's domestic demand has become the focus of stimulating the economy, while residents' consumption has become an important part of boosting domestic demand. According to the analysis of the current economic development situation, China can only boost economic growth by expanding domestic demand. However, because our current social security is at the stage of speeding up construction and is relatively imperfect, this has caused most residents to cope with uncertainties such as old-age care and medical care. Reducing consumption and increasing precautionary savings have had a significant impact on the consumption of Chinese residents. In order to effectively expand the consumption demand of Chinese residents, this paper studies the impact of social security on residents' consumption by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis. The results show that social security has positive correlation with residents' consumption. Consummating social security can stimulate the consumption of our country's residents. Therefore, this paper introduces Keynes's expected consumption theory as the theoretical basis, starting with the current consumption situation of Chinese residents and various factors affecting consumption. This paper describes the influence of social security and consumption qualitatively, and then carries on the quantitative analysis with the correlation time series data. This article uses four parts to prove the article argument. The first part describes the domestic and foreign scholars' research in this field in recent years, reviews and summarizes the related literature, and shows the ideas and general views of the full text. The second part analyzes the current situation and reasons of consumption in our country. Through the analysis of consumption structure and consumption level, it shows that the current situation of consumption in China is to expand domestic demand and increase the consumption of residents. This part emphasizes that social security can reduce residents' precautionary savings and increase residents' consumption. The third part starts from the current economic situation of our country, and selects the theoretical basis suitable for our country's economy. The regression model is used to study the correlation between social security and residents' consumption. The data of old-age pension and medical security of Chinese urban residents from 1996 to 2011 are selected. Taking the expenditure of pension and medical insurance and the expenditure of urban residents as independent variables and variables, This paper establishes a regression model to prove the influence of social security on residents' consumption, and then proves the necessity of perfecting social security to expand domestic demand by combining theory with demonstration. After the basic analysis in the first few parts, the 4th part puts forward the suggestions of promoting residents' consumption and expanding domestic demand: to effectively raise residents' income and improve their consumption concept, to continue to expand the coverage of social security, and to increase residents' immediate consumption; Improving the consumption function of the social security card and increasing the consumption of the residents; giving full play to the role of the social security fund in promoting consumption growth; at the same time, it is also suggested that the service industry related to social security should be developed to improve the quality of life of the residents; and that the local government should play a financial role. Drive the rural consumer market.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;D632.1

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