老龄化背景下基于个人效用最大化的延迟退休决策分析

发布时间：2018-05-07 03:22

本文选题：三状态模型 + 个人效用最大化　；参考：《人口与经济》2017年03期

【摘要】：我国进入老龄化社会后,又以较快的速度即将进入超老龄化社会,社会保障基金的支付压力持续加剧,从而不得不采取有效的应对措施。本文基于个人效用最大化原理,通过考虑工资回报率、劳动者区分因子等变量,建立三状态的最优退休年龄模型。在此基础上,对比脑力劳动者与体力劳动者的不同退休倾向,并依据中国人口平均预期寿命的变化,从各省市的角度对1990年、2000年、2010年的最优退休年龄分布特点进行比较分析。结果表明:脑力劳动者的最优退休年龄应以高于体力劳动者1—2年为宜;北京、上海等经济强省可率先推行延迟退休年龄的政策,贵州、云南等地可较小幅度延迟或滞后延迟。
[Abstract]:After entering the aging society, our country is about to enter the super-aging society at a faster speed, and the payment pressure of the social security fund continues to intensify, so we have to take effective measures to deal with it. Based on the principle of individual utility maximization, this paper establishes a three-state optimal retirement age model by taking into account the variables such as the rate of return on wages, the labor differentiation factor, and so on. On this basis, this paper compares the different retirement tendencies of mental workers and manual workers, and according to the changes of average life expectancy of Chinese population, makes a comparative analysis of the distribution characteristics of the optimal retirement age in 1990, 2000 and 2010 from the perspective of various provinces and cities. The results show that the optimal retirement age of mental workers should be higher than that of manual workers for 1-2 years, and that some economically powerful provinces such as Beijing and Shanghai can take the lead in implementing the policy of delaying retirement age. Yunnan and other places can be delayed or delayed by a small margin.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“我国基本养老保险制度中的长寿风险精算管理研究”(71671064);国家自然科学基金项目“老龄化背景下新农保可持续发展的精算研究”(71271083) 北京市社会科学基金重大项目“老龄化背景下中国养老保险体系的长寿风险管理理论研究”(15ZDA19)
【分类号】：F249.2

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