财政社会保障支出结构对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 12:23

本文选题：财政社会保障支出 + 支出结构　；参考：《广东财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展,我国财政社会保障支出总量、规模得到很大的提高。但是因为政策等因素的影响,我国财政社会保障支出占GDP的比重维持在10%-11%之间,而西方发达国家财政社会保障支出占GDP的比重高于40%。财政社会保障支出对经济增长的影响是不言而喻的,但我国的财政社会保障支出水平较低及支出结构不合理不利于经济的发展。因此,政府在增加财政社会保障支出的基础上,通过调节财政社会保障支出结构进而促进经济的发展。本文以社会保障制度与经济增长相关性理论、消费理论以及投资理论作为理论基础,建立经济增长模型,并将财政社会保障支出结构的五个变量纳入模型,分析财政社会保障支出结构对经济增长的影响。从广东省财政社会保障支出与经济发展的现状出发,选取广东省2001-2013年数据,运用格兰杰因果关系检验、平稳性检验与协整检验实证分析广东省财政社会保障支出结构对经济增长的影响,分析社会保险基金补助、行政离退休补助、就业补助、城乡最低保障、对自然灾害的补助是否促进广东省地区经济发展,以及对经济增长的具体影响程度。实证分析结果显示,财政社会保障支出结构各项目对经济增长的影响程度各不相同。在此基础上,借鉴国外财政社会保障支出的先进理论与实践经验,提出增加广东省财政社会保障支出与优化财政社会保障支出结构的对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the total amount of financial and social security expenditure in our country has been greatly improved. However, due to the influence of policy and other factors, the proportion of China's fiscal social security expenditure to GDP is between 10% and 11%, while the proportion of western developed countries' fiscal social security expenditure to GDP is higher than 40%. The influence of financial social security expenditure on economic growth is self-evident, but the low level of financial and social security expenditure and unreasonable expenditure structure are not conducive to economic development in China. Therefore, on the basis of increasing the expenditure of financial social security, the government promotes the development of economy by adjusting the expenditure structure of financial social security. Based on the theory of correlation between social security system and economic growth, consumption theory and investment theory, this paper establishes a model of economic growth and brings into the model five variables of the expenditure structure of financial and social security. This paper analyzes the influence of the expenditure structure of financial and social security on economic growth. Starting from the current situation of financial and social security expenditure and economic development in Guangdong Province, selecting the data of Guangdong Province from 2001 to 2013, using Granger causality test, Stability test and cointegration test empirical analysis of the impact of social security expenditure structure on economic growth in Guangdong Province, analysis of social insurance fund subsidies, administrative retirement benefits, employment subsidies, urban and rural minimum security, Whether the subsidy to natural disasters will promote the economic development of Guangdong Province, and the specific impact on economic growth. The results of empirical analysis show that the financial and social security expenditure structure has different effects on economic growth. On this basis, based on the advanced theory and practical experience of foreign financial social security expenditure, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for increasing the expenditure of financial social security and optimizing the structure of the expenditure of financial social security in Guangdong Province.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.1

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