中国城、乡社会养老保险精算模型的建立与实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 10:10

本文选题：养老保险 + 城乡居民　；参考：《华中农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：养老保险是每个国家社会保障体系中最重要的组成部分,中国也不例外。从1997年中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度改革开始,到2009年新型农村社会养老保险制度试点,再到2013年城乡居民社会养老保险的并轨,中国社会养老保险体系在一系列的改革过程中不断的完善和发展。然而,近年来随着人口老龄化速度的加快,中国社会养老保险体制也面临这诸多问题和挑战。本论文将根据中国国情,建立适应中国国情的城乡居民养老金精算模型,预测养老金未来发展,合理调整养老参数,引导养老保险体系进入良性循环轨道,对推动中国养老保险体系可持续发展和社会和谐发展,具有十分重要的现实意义。由于中国城镇职工基本养老体系与农村居民社会养老保险体系运行机理并不相同,所面临的问题以及问题的根源也不一样,因此必须分别建立模型进行研究。对于城镇职工基本养老保险体系,第一步在分析其基金收入、支出、余额变化的基础上,结合Leslie人口结构递推模型、GDP指数增长模型和工资Logistic增长模型,建立城镇职工基本养老保险精算模型。第二步根据相关数据和参数假定,利用精算模型预测未来55年基金变化趋势,结果显示城镇职工基本养老保险基金余额到2055年将为负值,后期基金收不抵支状况十分严重,现行城镇职工基本养老保险制度不能可持续运行。第三步对精算模型中的退休年龄、替代率、生育率和投资收益率进行调整,设计了三种可以使城镇职工基本养老保险体系度过人口老龄化阶段的调整方案:(1)2021年开始延迟退休五年,总体替代率提高5%;(2)逐步放开二孩政策,2031年的总生育率差不多提高一倍,投资收益率提高到5%;(3)2021年开始延迟退休两年,总体替代率提高4%,2031年的总和生育率提高差不多0.8倍,投资收益率提高到5%。这三种方案均可以使城镇职工基本养老保险基金在2070年时有结余,并且后期随着人口结构的调整能够逐步达到收支平衡。对于新型农村社会养老保险体系,在分析其基金收入和支出的基础上建立个人账户精算模型,结合人口寿命分布,分析新农保的“保基本”和“可持续”问题。结果显示:(1)新农保存在非常严重的“保基本”风险,若不鼓励参保农民提高缴费档次,农村老人的基本生活将难以得到保障。(2)新农保的个人账户养老金存在21%的缺口,并且这个缺口与人口结构无关,是制度设计上的系统缺口。新农保需要政府财政源源不断的补贴才能持续运行下去。论文的最后,根据研究结论,对中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度提出了适当调整生育政策、合理延迟退休政策和逐步放宽基金管理政策三个方面的改革建议,同时对新农保个人账户也提出了差别化调整缴费补贴政策、逐步放宽基金管理政策和合理延迟退休政策三个方面的改进建议。
[Abstract]:Endowment insurance is the most important part of every country's social security system, and China is no exception. Starting from the reform of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China in 1997, to the pilot project of the new rural social old-age insurance system in 2009 and to the integration of social old-age insurance for urban and rural residents in 2013, China's social endowment insurance system in a series of reforms in the process of continuous improvement and development. However, with the rapid aging of the population in recent years, China's social endowment insurance system is also faced with these problems and challenges. According to the national conditions of China, this paper will establish an actuarial model of pension for urban and rural residents in China, predict the future development of pension, adjust the pension parameters reasonably, and guide the pension insurance system into a virtuous circle. It is of great practical significance to promote the sustainable development of Chinese endowment insurance system and the harmonious development of society. Since the basic pension system of urban workers in China is not the same as the social pension insurance system of rural residents, and the problems and root causes are also different, it is necessary to establish models for research. For the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers, the first step is to analyze the changes of fund income, expenditure and balance, and combine the Leslie population structure recursive model with the Leslie exponential growth model and the wage Logistic growth model. To establish an actuarial model of basic old-age insurance for urban workers. The second step is to forecast the trend of fund changes in the coming 55 years by using actuarial model according to the related data and parameter assumptions. The result shows that the balance of basic pension insurance fund for urban workers will be negative by 2055, and the situation of fund receiving and non-payment in the later period is very serious. Current urban worker basic endowment insurance system cannot run continuously. The third step is to adjust the retirement age, replacement rate, fertility rate and rate of return on investment in the actuarial model. Has designed three adjustment schemes that can enable the basic old-age insurance system of urban workers to pass through the aging stage of the population.) starting from 2021, retirement will be delayed by five years, the overall replacement rate will be increased by 5% and 2%) the two-child policy will be gradually liberalized, and the total fertility rate in 2031 will almost double. In 2021, the total replacement rate increased by 4%, the total fertility rate in 2031 increased by almost 0.8 times, and the return on investment increased to 5%. These three schemes can make the basic old-age insurance fund of urban workers have balance in 2070, and gradually reach the balance of income and expenditure with the adjustment of population structure in the later period. For the new rural social endowment insurance system, based on the analysis of its fund income and expenditure, the actuarial model of individual account is established. Combining with the distribution of population life, the basic and sustainable problems of the new rural social pension insurance are analyzed. The results show that the new farmers are kept in a very serious "basic insurance" risk. If the insured farmers are not encouraged to raise the scale of their contributions, it will be difficult to ensure the basic livelihood of the rural elderly. 2) there is a 21% gap in the personal account pension of the new rural insurance. And this gap has nothing to do with the structure of the population, is the institutional design of the system gap. The new rural insurance needs the government financial continuous subsidy to continue to run. Finally, according to the conclusion of the study, the paper puts forward three reform suggestions on the basic old-age insurance system of urban workers in China, such as appropriate adjustment of birth policy, reasonable delay of retirement policy and gradual relaxation of fund management policy. At the same time, the author also puts forward three suggestions for the improvement of the personal account of New Rural Insurance, such as differential adjustment of payment subsidy policy, gradual relaxation of fund management policy and reasonable delay of retirement policy.
【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F842.67

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