没有“踊跃申请生二孩”的原因——人口规律已经发生了变化
发布时间：2018-07-14 18:01
【摘要】：随着我国经济的发展,人们生育所适用的人口规律已经发生了变化。从新中国成立初期适用的"马尔萨斯人口规律",进入到"社会主义人口规律"和计划生育,然后是雇佣经济普遍发展带来的"资本主义人口规律",以及后续的技术经济时代的"人力资本人口规律",加上社会保障的发展以及避孕工具的发展,带来了"成本效益比较的人口规律"和生育正效益社会外溢的"公共补偿生育规律"。因此,人们生育意愿由原来的强烈变为缓和,原来是政策"强制一孩",现在则是一部分人"自愿一孩",甚至不生孩子。我们要从人口规律的变动上去理解现实,制定人口政策。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's economy, the population law of people's fertility has changed. From the "Malthus population Law", which was applied in the early days of the founding of New China, to the "Socialist population Law" and family planning, Then there is the "law of capitalist population" brought about by the general development of the employment economy, and the "law of human capital population" of the subsequent technical and economic times, plus the development of social security and the development of contraceptives. It brings "population law of cost-benefit comparison" and "law of public compensatory fertility" of social spillover of positive benefits of fertility. As a result, people's desire to have children has been changed from a strong one to a moderate one. It turns out that the policy of "forcing a child" is now a part of the population "willing to have one child" or even not having a child. We should understand reality from the change of population law and formulate population policy.
【作者单位】： 中国财政科学研究院;
【分类号】：C924.2
本文编号：2122509
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's economy, the population law of people's fertility has changed. From the "Malthus population Law", which was applied in the early days of the founding of New China, to the "Socialist population Law" and family planning, Then there is the "law of capitalist population" brought about by the general development of the employment economy, and the "law of human capital population" of the subsequent technical and economic times, plus the development of social security and the development of contraceptives. It brings "population law of cost-benefit comparison" and "law of public compensatory fertility" of social spillover of positive benefits of fertility. As a result, people's desire to have children has been changed from a strong one to a moderate one. It turns out that the policy of "forcing a child" is now a part of the population "willing to have one child" or even not having a child. We should understand reality from the change of population law and formulate population policy.
【作者单位】： 中国财政科学研究院;
【分类号】：C924.2
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