基于系统动力学的沈阳市综合承载力方案比较研究

发布时间：2018-08-02 17:31

【摘要】：随着城市化进程的不断推进,城市在发展过程中受到的来自人口数量、资源环境等因素的影响不断增大,一系列诸如环境污染、资源匮乏和城市拥挤的“城市病”也逐渐引起了人们对城市承载能力的关注。努力提升城市的承载能力,对城市未来长期稳定的发展和人民生活质量的提高都有重要意义。本文以沈阳市为研究对象,目的是通过建立沈阳市综合承载力系统动力学模型,为沈阳市设计四种不同的综合承载力发展方案,并通过评价分析选出使未来沈阳市综合承载力最佳状态的方案,以此为基础为沈阳市综合承载力的提升提出对策建议。基于上述目标,本文首先对城市综合承载力的概念进行了定义,并依据其内涵,将城市综合承载力分为人口、资源、经济、环境、社会五个子系统。在可持续发展思想和系统论观点的指导下,结合综合承载力内涵和沈阳市特点,构建了沈阳市综合承载力系统动力学模型。在此基础上,通过总结分析现状延续下沈阳市综合承载力出现的问题,找出对综合承载力状态影响较大的参数设为模拟参数。对模拟参数在合理区间内进行调控,设计了四种沈阳市综合承载力的发展方案,并通过沈阳市综合承载力系统动力学模型分别得出四种不同方案下的各要素的预测值。建立沈阳市综合承载力评价指标体系,利用层次分析法对各指标赋予权重。选定模糊评判法作为评价方法,对四种发展方案下各要素的预测值进行了综合评价,从而选出得分最高,即综合承载力状态最优的发展方案。结果显示,方案四下的沈阳市综合承载力状态最优,即处于高承载力状态。因此,以方案四为基础,对比其他方案,提出了提升沈阳市综合承载力的包括优化产业结构、保持适度经济增速、建立资源节约型城市、加大环保力度和完善社会保障等对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization, the influence of population, resources and environment on the development of cities is increasing, such as a series of environmental pollution. The scarcity of resources and the urban disease of urban congestion have gradually aroused people's concern about the carrying capacity of cities. It is of great significance to improve the carrying capacity of the city for the future development of the city and the improvement of the people's quality of life. Taking Shenyang as the research object, the purpose of this paper is to design four different comprehensive bearing capacity development schemes for Shenyang by establishing the system dynamics model of the comprehensive bearing capacity of Shenyang. Through evaluation and analysis, the optimal condition of the comprehensive bearing capacity in Shenyang is selected, based on which the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the promotion of the comprehensive bearing capacity in Shenyang. Based on the above objectives, this paper firstly defines the concept of urban comprehensive carrying capacity and divides it into five subsystems: population, resources, economy, environment and society according to its connotation. Under the guidance of the idea of sustainable development and the viewpoint of system theory, combined with the connotation of comprehensive bearing capacity and the characteristics of Shenyang City, the system dynamics model of comprehensive bearing capacity of Shenyang City was constructed. On this basis, through summarizing and analyzing the existing problems of the comprehensive bearing capacity in Shenyang under the continuation of the present situation, the parameters which have a great influence on the comprehensive bearing capacity are found to be set as simulation parameters. The simulation parameters are regulated within a reasonable range, and four development schemes of comprehensive bearing capacity of Shenyang are designed, and the prediction values of each element under four different schemes are obtained by using the system dynamics model of Shenyang comprehensive bearing capacity. The comprehensive bearing capacity evaluation index system of Shenyang is established, and the weight of each index is given by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The fuzzy evaluation method is selected as the evaluation method, and the prediction values of each element under four development schemes are comprehensively evaluated, and the development scheme with the highest score, that is, the optimal comprehensive bearing capacity state, is selected. The results show that the comprehensive bearing capacity of Shenyang is optimal, that is, it is in high bearing capacity. Therefore, on the basis of option four, compared with other schemes, the paper puts forward some measures to enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of Shenyang, including optimizing the industrial structure, maintaining a moderate economic growth rate, and establishing a resource-conserving city. Strengthen environmental protection and improve social security and other countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：N941.3;F299.27

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