城镇居民消费升级特征与动因研判——基于空间溢出视角的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-13 16:18

【摘要】：利用ELES模型和动态空间杜宾模型,对我国31个省份2003-2014年城镇居民消费升级的基本特征、影响因素及其空间溢出效应进行了定量分析。结果表明:1、城镇居民消费升级具有需求多样性、层次递进性和动态非平衡性的特征;2、城镇居民可支配收入和非工资收入占比的增长有利于推动消费结构升级,而个人社保缴费负担、不确定性和消费价格均对消费升级形成抑制,财政社会保障支出对消费升级的影响作用不显著;3、本地区城镇居民收入条件的改善不仅有利于该地消费扩张和结构升级,且会对路径区域居民消费升级产生正向溢出,而社会保障因素、不确定性因素和价格因素均对城镇居民消费升级形成负向溢出。
[Abstract]:By using ELES model and dynamic spatial Doberman model, the basic characteristics, influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of urban residents' consumption upgrading from 2003 to 2014 in 31 provinces of China were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the consumption upgrading of urban residents has the characteristics of diversity of demand, hierarchical progression and dynamic disequilibrium. The increase of the proportion of disposable income and non-wage income of urban residents is beneficial to promote the upgrading of consumption structure. On the other hand, the burden of individual social security contributions, uncertainty and consumer prices all inhibit the escalation of consumption. The effect of financial and social security expenditure on consumption upgrading is not significant. The improvement of income conditions of urban residents in this area is not only conducive to the expansion of consumption and structural upgrading, but also has a positive spillover to the consumption upgrading of residents in the path area. However, social security factors, uncertainty factors and price factors all have negative spillover on urban residents' consumption upgrading.
【作者单位】：西南大学;中国人民大学;
【基金】：重庆市重大决策咨询研究课题“促进内需持续增长的新型城镇化发展战略研究”(2013-ZB-05),项目负责人:杨刚
【分类号】：F126.1

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