财政支出偏向、金融约束与中国外贸失衡

发布时间：2019-02-25 18:22

【摘要】：自1994年以来,与我国持续的对外贸易失衡相伴随的重要现象就是国内财政支出偏向问题一直显著存在。其中,生产性公共品的大量财政支出,形成了对企业的巨额补贴,增加了企业在社会总产出中的分配比例,这又使得企业的储蓄投资倾向进一步强化。而居民相对收入的下降以及政府在社保等非生产性公共品支出上的不足导致其消费能力受限、储蓄率难以降低。全社会由此形成的高额储蓄,在我国金融市场存在约束的条件下,难以被完全转化为国内的投资和消费。因此,国内大量过剩的储蓄只能以商品和服务净出口的形式加以平衡,与此对应的即为我国对外贸易的失衡。在进一步的计量检验中验证了上述理论假说的正确性,即:财政支出偏向和金融市场约束是我国对外贸易失衡的重要促成因素。因此,在我国实行更加平衡的进出口贸易发展战略过程中,应该更加重视财政支出结构和金融市场深化在其中所起的重要作用。
[Abstract]:Since 1994, an important phenomenon accompanied by the persistent imbalance of foreign trade in China has been the bias of domestic fiscal expenditure. Among them, a large amount of financial expenditure of productive public goods forms a huge subsidy to enterprises and increases the proportion of distribution of enterprises in total social output, which further strengthens the tendency of enterprises to save and invest. The decline in relative income of residents and the lack of government spending on unproductive public goods, such as social security, lead to limited consumption capacity and difficult to reduce the savings rate. The high savings formed by the whole society are difficult to be completely transformed into domestic investment and consumption under the condition of the financial market in our country. Therefore, a large amount of domestic excess savings can only be balanced in the form of net exports of goods and services, which corresponds to the imbalance of China's foreign trade. In the further measurement test, the correctness of the above-mentioned theoretical hypothesis is verified, that is, fiscal expenditure bias and financial market constraints are the important contributing factors to the imbalance of foreign trade in China. Therefore, in the process of implementing a more balanced development strategy of import and export trade in China, we should pay more attention to the structure of fiscal expenditure and the important role played by the deepening of the financial market.
【作者单位】：浙江大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F812.45;F832;F752.6

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