2000-2014年海上丝绸之路贸易网络结构特征演化

发布时间：2018-06-27 16:58

本文选题：海上丝绸之路 + 国际贸易网　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2017年03期

【摘要】：文章采用社会网络分析方法,引入贸易依赖度概念及阈值设定,从贸易网络整体性、贸易伙伴间关系、贸易中心地位和贸易社团划分四个维度,分析2000-2014年海上丝绸之路62国贸易网络结构特征及演化规律。研究表明:(1)该贸易网络具有小世界特征,相关国家域内依赖度不断提高,中国倡建海上丝绸之路使该网络聚集效应迅速提升;(2)该贸易网络异配、有序,2008年次贷危机后核心-边缘新秩序得以确认与强化,贸易伙伴间差异性收敛;(3)TOP12"富人俱乐部"成员较稳定但排序变动,中国中心地位攀升与日本演化轨迹呈剪刀形交叉,印度崛起曲线明显;(4)地理毗邻、海域相通是贸易社团形成的纽带,东盟一体化和南亚融入区域使主体贸易社团形态向西贯通绵延,中国在其中起战略推动和社团联结的重要作用。中国产业转型和区域互联互通的努力,将对进一步优化和加强海上丝绸之路贸易网络产生巨大影响。
[Abstract]:This paper adopts the social network analysis method, introduces the concept of trade dependence degree and the threshold setting, divides four dimensions from the integrity of trade network, the relationship between trade partners, the status of trade center and the trade community. This paper analyzes the characteristics and evolution of trade network structure of 62 countries along the Silk Road from 2000 to 2014. The results show that: (1) the trade network is characterized by a small world, and the dependence of the countries concerned is increasing, and the agglomeration effect of the network is rapidly enhanced by the establishment of the maritime Silk Road by China; (2) the heterogeneity of the trade network. Orderly, the new order of core and edge after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 was confirmed and strengthened, and the differences among trading partners converged. (3) the membership of Top12 "rich people's club" was stable but the ranking was changed. The rising curve of India is obvious; (4) the geography is adjacent, the sea area is connected with each other, the ASEAN integration and the South Asian integration make the main trade association form to the west. China plays an important role in strategic promotion and association. China's industrial transformation and regional connectivity efforts will have a great impact on further optimizing and strengthening the maritime Silk Road trade network.
【作者单位】：上海理工大学管理学院;宁波职业技术学院;江苏科技大学张家港校区;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“超网络及其零行列式策略博弈演化机制研究”(71571119)
【分类号】：C912.3;F746

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