中国推迟退休年龄方案的可行性研究

发布时间：2018-10-08 08:12

【摘要】：随着中国社会主义市场经济的确立与完善,与之配套的各项措施也逐渐完备。中国城镇职工的退休制度经历了半个多世纪的实践,为广大退休人口的老年生活提供了比较有效的保障,而关于退休年龄的规定却长久以来没有进行相应的改革,过早的退休年龄规定在一定程度上已经影响到了中国未来经济发展的进程。因此,关于推迟退休年龄的讨论近些年来越来越激烈。随着经济社会的不断发展,人口预期寿命不断延长,老龄化趋势加剧,正常的法定退休年龄将导致较高的老年抚养比,养老保险的支付压力持续增加;同时,中国自上个世纪八十年代开始的人口计划生育政策效应开始凸显,人口红利逐渐消失,未来劳动力数量不断减少。但是,长期以来,中国城镇职工的退休年龄标准一直没有更改过,现阶段的退休年龄尤其是女性退休年龄偏低,普遍低于英、美、德等发达国家,具备进行调整的可能性。在此背景下,关于退休年龄推迟的呼声日渐增多,多数学者希望通过推迟城镇职工的退休年龄来增加劳动人口数量,提高劳动人口系数和降低老年抚养比,从而依靠社会养老保险制度自身来减少养老金支付压力。本论文从人口预测模型入手,通过设计不同的推迟退休方案,运用定量的分析来论证中国推迟退休年龄的可行性,旨在通过各项数据指标来说明推迟退休年龄已经到了必须提上议事日程的阶段,并初步提出了具体实施推迟退休年龄的方案与措施。本文共分五个部分: 第一章:推迟退休年龄的相关概念界定和理论综述,提出生命周期理论、代际交叠模型、退休养老金的数理模型等,为后续研究提供理论基础和指导。第二章:退休政策的现状及存在的问题,通过分析现行退休制度来发现问题。第三章:推迟退休年龄的必要性分析,主要从人口规模和人口老龄化、劳动力供求变化、平衡养老金收支均衡、消除男女职工性别差异、优化老年人力资源配置等方面来论证推迟退休年龄的必要性。第四章:推迟退休年龄的可行性分析,包括推迟退休年龄的方案设计、推迟退休年龄的效应分析、推迟退休年龄三种方案比较及可行性,用大量的数据来论证推迟退休年龄的可行性。第五章:推迟退休年龄的结论与政策建议,通过前面的研究得出实施弹性退休年龄、消除女工人女干部身份差异、男女职工退休年龄差别调整的结论,并为推迟退休年龄的实施提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the establishment and perfection of China's socialist market economy, the corresponding measures are gradually completed. The retirement system of urban workers in China has experienced more than half a century of practice, which has provided a relatively effective protection for the elderly living of the vast number of retired people, but the regulations on the retirement age have not been reformed accordingly for a long time. The early retirement age has affected China's future economic development to some extent. As a result, discussions about postponing the retirement age have intensified in recent years. With the continuous development of economy and society, the life expectancy of the population continues to prolong, the trend of aging is aggravated, the normal legal retirement age will lead to higher old-age dependency ratio, and the payment pressure of the old-age insurance will continue to increase; at the same time, The effect of China's family planning policy, which began in the 1980s, has been highlighted, with the population dividend gradually disappearing and the number of labor in the future dwindling. However, for a long time, the standard of retirement age for urban workers in China has not been changed. At this stage, the retirement age, especially for women, is on the low side, which is generally lower than that of developed countries such as Britain, the United States, Germany and so on, and has the possibility of adjustment. In this context, there are more and more calls for the retirement age to be postponed. Most scholars hope to increase the number of the working population, increase the coefficient of the working population and reduce the dependency ratio of the elderly by postponing the retirement age of urban workers. Thus rely on the social endowment insurance system itself to reduce pension payment pressure. This paper starts with the population forecast model, through the design of different deferred retirement schemes, using quantitative analysis to prove the feasibility of delaying retirement age in China. The purpose of this paper is to show that the delay of retirement age has reached the stage that must be put on the agenda through various data indicators, and to put forward some concrete plans and measures to put the retirement age delay into practice. This paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter: the definition of the concept of deferred retirement age and theoretical review, put forward life cycle theory, intergenerational overlap model, mathematical model of retirement pension, etc. To provide theoretical basis and guidance for follow-up research. The second chapter: the present situation and existing problems of retirement policy, through the analysis of the current retirement system to find out the problems. Chapter III: the necessity of delaying the retirement age, mainly from the population size and population aging, labor force supply and demand changes, balance pension income and expenditure balance, eliminate gender differences between male and female workers, To optimize the allocation of human resources for the elderly to demonstrate the necessity of postponing the retirement age. Chapter four: the feasibility analysis of delaying retirement age, including the scheme design of delaying retirement age, the effect analysis of delaying retirement age, the comparison and feasibility of three schemes of delaying retirement age. There is plenty of data to prove the feasibility of postponing the retirement age. Chapter five: the conclusion and policy suggestion of postponing retirement age, through the previous research, the conclusion of implementing flexible retirement age, eliminating the identity difference of female workers and cadres, adjusting the difference of retirement age between male and female workers, And put forward the corresponding policy suggestion for postponing the implementation of the retirement age.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C913.7

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