两伊战争对交战双方的经济影响

发布时间：2018-07-12 15:23

本文选题：两伊战争 + 经济影响　；参考：《西南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：从1980年9月22日至1988年8月20日这为期近8年的两伊战争,就其破坏的规模和对经济的影响而言,这场战争是第二次世界大战以来最具毁灭性的战争之一,给伊朗和伊拉克两国的经济带来了灾难性的后果。由于战争的爆发,交战双方将大量财富消耗在其上,减少了在国家发展计划上的投入,其所造成的机会成本比起战争所造成的直接经济破坏是不可低估的。本文主要分为三个章节对两伊战争的经济影响进行论述。第一章为伊朗部分,第二章为伊拉克部分,这两章都分别从石油部门、工业、农业、人力资源与人民生活水平、军事化程度以及战争造成经济消耗以及额外的机会成本等几个方面进行论述。最后一章总结了两伊战争对交战双方造成的总的经济损失及其严重后果,以及战争造成的经济影响的外溢性。大体上,两伊战争对双方造成的共同经济后果主要有以下几方面：1、财富消耗,人力资源和非人力资源的巨大破坏导致生产力水平的下降和外汇储备的流失；2、由于和平时期经济向战时经济的转变,国民经济高度军事化,牺牲了国民生产总值的潜在产出,并且资源不能得到最有效的使用或者分配到最有效的地方,导致成本的增加和效率的下降；3、人才外流与大规模的征兵导致人力资源质量下降。战争期间双方都空前的向中学和大学在校生征召入伍,并且许多学者和专家逃离动乱的祖国到西方国家；4、由于国内工业生产不足,进口依赖增加,黑市贸易增多,国内的通货膨胀上升,人民生活水平下降；5、农业部门的破坏导致生产难以满足日益增长的人口需求,双方都处于一种对外界食物的严重依赖状态；6、军费开支的增加加重了双方的国防负担；7、战争的爆发及其长期性导致双方无法正常执行经济发展规划,错过了纠正经济发展过程中所出现问题的机会,并使得原本的经济问题进一步恶化。如双方都未能实现出口的多样化,反而越来越依赖石油部门所赚取的外汇收入。这场战争对双方造成的经济影响也不尽相同：1、就基础设施破坏程度而言,伊朗要严重于伊拉克；2、在人力资源破坏程度方面,伊朗在这场战争中的人员死伤数量要多于伊拉克,但伊拉克由于人口数量与征兵需求的矛盾,不得不大量从周边国家引进外来工,侨汇增加了伊拉克的国际收支平衡负担；3、国内工业生产方面,伊朗虽然严重依赖于外界的非军事产品产品进口,但由于伊朗政府实行自力更生、自给自足的经济政策,国内的小手工作坊由于战争需求而活跃起来,战争前期,由于萨达姆既要“枪支”也要“黄油”的政策,国内工业生产受战争的影响较小,但随着外汇储备的枯竭,伊拉克越来越依赖于外界的非军事产品进口,尤其是消费品进口；4、农业方面,伊朗的农业是所有经济部门中表现相对最好的一个,粮食产品不断增加,但与伊拉克一样,仍无法满足日益增长的人口需求,而伊拉克的农业生产状况则不断地恶化,传统的椰枣等非能源出口不断减少,对外界的粮食需求不断增加；5、就机会成本而言,伊朗由于这场战争错失了纠正经济发展过程中的问题的机会,而伊拉克则是中断了经济快速发展的宝贵时间,造成了财富的巨大浪费。
[Abstract]:From September 22, 1980 to August 20, 1988, the Iraq war, which lasted for nearly 8 years, was one of the most devastating wars since the Second World War, with the scale of its destruction and the impact on the economy. It brought disastrous consequences to the economy of both Iran and Iraq. There are three chapters on the economic impact of the two Iraq wars. The first chapter is the Iran part, the second chapter is the Iraqi part, and the two chapters are all respectively. From the oil sector, industry, agriculture, human resources and the living standard of the people, the degree of militarization and the economic consumption as well as the additional opportunity cost of war, the last chapter summarizes the total economic losses and the serious consequences of the Iraq war on the warring parties, as well as the economic impact of the war. In general, the common economic consequences of the Iran Iraq war on both sides mainly have the following aspects: 1, the loss of the productivity level and the loss of foreign exchange reserves by the wealth consumption, the great destruction of human resources and non human resources; and 2, the high militarization of the national economy, the high militarization of the national economy, and the sacrifice of the national economy as a result of the peaceful period of the economy. The potential output of gross national product (GNP), and the uneffective use or distribution of resources to the most effective places, resulted in increased cost and reduced efficiency; 3, human resource outflow and large-scale recruitment led to a decline in the quality of human resources. Many scholars and experts fled the troubled country to the western countries; 4, because of the shortage of domestic industrial production, the increase of import dependence, the increase in the black market trade, the rising inflation in the country, the decline of the living standard of the people, and the destruction of the agricultural sector, which resulted in the difficulty of meeting the growing demand of the population, and both sides were in a kind of food for the outside world. 6, the increase of military expenditure aggravated the burden of defense on both sides; 7, the outbreak of the war and its long-term nature resulted in the failure of both sides to carry out the economic development plan normally, missed the opportunity to correct the problems in the economic development process, and made the original economic problems further worsened. For example, both sides failed to achieve export. Diversification, instead, is increasingly dependent on the foreign exchange earnings earned by the oil sector. The economic impact of this war on both sides is different: 1, Iran is serious in Iraq as far as the extent of infrastructure damage is concerned; 2, in terms of the extent of human resource destruction, the number of deaths and injuries in this war is more than in Iraq, but in the extent of the destruction of human resources, the number of casualties in this war is more than Iraq, Because of the contradiction between the population and the demand for military conscription, Iraq has to import a large number of foreign workers from the surrounding countries, and remittances have increased the balance of balance of payments for Iraq. 3, in the field of domestic industrial production, Iran is heavily dependent on the import of non military products from the outside world, but because the government of Iran is self reliant and self-sufficient Economic policy, the domestic small hand workshops are active because of the demand for war. In the early period of the war, because of Sadam's policy of "gun" and "butter", domestic industrial production was less affected by the war, but with the exhaustion of foreign exchange reserves, Iraq became more and more dependent on the import of non military products from the outside world, especially the consumer goods. 4, in agriculture, agriculture in Iran is the best in all sectors of the economy, and food products are increasing, but as in Iraq, it is still unable to meet the growing demand for population, while Iraq's agricultural production continues to deteriorate, the non energy exports such as traditional dates are decreasing, and the food needs for the outside world. 5, in terms of opportunity cost, Iran has missed the opportunity to correct problems in the process of economic development because of this war, while Iraq is a precious time to disrupt the rapid economic development and cause a huge waste of wealth.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：K153

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