民盟和军政府博弈与缅甸政治民主化进程（1988-2016）

发布时间：2018-07-16 15:40

【摘要】：民盟和军政府的博弈,是缅甸政治民主化的动力。1988年缅甸国内局势动荡,军政府执政的合法性受到质疑,民盟成为政治民主最好的“代言人”,缅甸政治民主化重新启动。经过长达二十几年的博弈,2016年民盟成员吴廷觉出任总统,标志着缅甸政治民主化取得了阶段性成果。本文以1988-2016年缅甸政治民主化进程中民盟和军政府博弈为研究对象,通过运用政治博弈相关理论分析民盟和军政府博弈的策略与过程,揭示民盟和军政府博弈对缅甸政治民主化的历史影响。第一章分析了1990年前民盟和军政府的博弈,并对双方使用的策略和博弈过程进行了论述;1990年后双方博弈的焦点转向了“1990年选举合法性”的问题,民盟要求的“1990年选举的合法性”未能得到军政府的承认。但是,缅甸政治有了民主化的迹象,缅甸政治民主化重新启动;第二章分析了2003-2015年民盟和军政府的博弈。在双方的博弈过程中,缅甸政治民主化不断发展。在“制宪问题”上民盟也没有获得更多宪法规定的权利,军政府则在宪法中塞进了更多符合军人自身的利益。2008年宪法通过后,双方在“宪政体制”内围绕“2010年选举”和“修宪”问题展开博弈,民盟都以失败告终。但是,缅甸政治的民主化因素显著增多,政治民主化有了较大的发展。第三章论述民盟和军政府在“2015年选举”中的博弈及相互妥协,对缅甸政治转型中民盟和军政府相互妥协的原因以及民盟最后获胜的原因作了分析。民盟和军政府的妥协,是缅甸政治转型的关键因素,在民盟和军政府的妥协过程中,缅甸政治民主化基本完成。第四章分析了民盟和军政府博弈的经验教训及对缅甸政治民主化的启示。对缅甸未来政治走向和民盟执政所面临的问题做了简要分析。
[Abstract]:The game between the NLD and the junta is the driving force of Myanmar's political democratization. In 1988, the internal situation in Myanmar was turbulent, the legitimacy of the junta's ruling was questioned, the NLD became the best "spokesman" of political democracy, and the political democratization of Myanmar was restarted. After more than two decades of gaming, NLD member Wu Tingjue became president in 2016, marking the achievement of political democratization in Myanmar. This paper takes the game between NLD and junta in the process of political democratization in Myanmar from 1988 to 2016 as the research object, and analyzes the strategy and process of the game between NLD and junta by using the relevant theory of political game. It reveals the historical influence of the game between NLD and junta on political democratization in Myanmar. The first chapter analyzes the game between NLD and junta before 1990, and discusses the tactics and game process used by both sides, and the focus of the game turns to the issue of "legitimacy of 1990 election" after 1990. The NLD's demand for "legitimacy of the 1990 elections" has not been recognized by the junta. However, there are signs of democratization in Myanmar, which is restarted. Chapter two analyzes the game between NLD and junta from 2003 to 2015. In the process of the game between the two sides, political democratization in Myanmar has been developing continuously. The NLD has also failed to gain more constitutional rights on the "constitutional issue," and the military junta has added more to the military's own interests. After the 2008 Constitution was passed, Both sides in the "constitutional system" around the "2010 election" and "constitutional amendment" game, the Democratic League ended in failure. However, Myanmar's political democratization factors have increased significantly, and political democratization has made great progress. The third chapter discusses the game and mutual compromise between NLD and junta in the "2015 election", and analyzes the reasons why the NLD and the junta compromise each other in the political transition of Myanmar and the reason why the NLD wins in the end. The compromise between NLD and junta is a key factor in Myanmar's political transition. In the process of compromise between NLD and junta, political democratization in Myanmar is basically completed. Chapter four analyzes the experience and lessons of the game between NLD and junta and its enlightenment to Myanmar's political democratization. This paper briefly analyzes the future political trend of Myanmar and the problems faced by NLD in power.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：K337.5

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