“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设的投资风险研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 11:36

本文关键词：“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设的投资风险研究　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“中蒙俄经济走廊”是我国“丝绸之路经济带”、俄罗斯跨欧亚大铁路与蒙古国“草原之路”对接的发展战略,是跨三国的合作项目与系统工程,是中蒙俄三国进行区域合作的新尝试与新探索。三方希望通过互联互通的基础设施建设,打通三国经济合作的走廊,推动“一带一路”战略目标实现。近年来,中俄蒙三国政府在基础设施建设、能源资源开发利用、国际贸易、物流等投资领域达成了一系列投资合作框架协议,取得许多重要成果,应以此为依托,稳步推进三国经济走廊建设。尽管就经济走廊建设本身而言已经达成基本共识,但客观来看,围绕经济走廊建设所涉及的投资合作仍然面临一系列风险,如何识别这些投资风险并加以规避和防范就成为成功推动“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设的首要条件。本文以“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设中的投资风险为研究对象,运用风险管理的相关理论,在“一带一路”背景下结合中蒙俄三国的投资合作现状,首先对“中蒙俄经济走廊”外部及内部的投资环境进行了详细的分析,在此基础上从风险来源自走廊外及走廊内两个角度总结归类了6大风险来源：即国际环境风险、政治风险、经济风险、社会文化风险、自然风险和人才风险及相对应的26个风险因素,借助专家问卷调查法的方式识别出12个主要投资风险因素。然后,基于识别出的12个风险因素利用专家知识建立因果贝叶斯网络结构模型并对网络进行参数学习,结果表明“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设中面临较高的投资风险；对贝叶斯网络进行逆向推理及敏感性分析,整理出了关键及敏感性投资风险因素。最后,针对这些风险因素,提出在“中蒙俄经济走廊”的投资进程中防范和规避投资风险的对策建议。具体建议有：针对来自于走廊外部的风险,三国应理性看待大国干扰,努力创造积极的国际舆论氛围;针对来自于走廊内部的风险,三国应加强政治互信,推进基础设施建设,完善政策法规,密切民众交流,培养及整合人才队伍等。
[Abstract]:"China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" is our country's "Silk Road Economic Belt". The development strategy of Russia's Trans-Eurasian Railway and Mongolia's "Prairie Road" is a cooperation project and system engineering across three countries. It is a new attempt and exploration of regional cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia. The three sides hope to open up the corridors of economic cooperation among the three countries through the construction of interconnected infrastructure, and to promote the realization of the strategic goal of "Belt and Road" in recent years. The governments of China, Russia and Mongolia have reached a series of framework agreements on investment cooperation in the fields of infrastructure construction, development and utilization of energy resources, international trade and logistics, and have achieved many important results, which should be relied on. Although the construction of the economic corridor itself has reached a basic consensus, but objectively speaking, the investment cooperation involved in the construction of the economic corridor still faces a series of risks. How to identify these investment risks and how to avoid and prevent them have become the most important conditions for successfully promoting the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. This paper takes the investment risk in the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor as the research object. Based on the theory of risk management and the current situation of investment cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia under the background of "Belt and Road", this paper firstly analyzes the external and internal investment environment of "Sino-Mongolian and Russian Economic Corridor" in detail. On the basis of this, six major risk sources are summarized and classified from two aspects: international environmental risk, political risk, economic risk and social and cultural risk from two aspects: international environmental risk, political risk, economic risk and social and cultural risk. Natural risk, talent risk and 26 corresponding risk factors, 12 main investment risk factors were identified by the method of expert questionnaire. Based on the 12 identified risk factors, the causal Bayesian network structure model is established by using expert knowledge and the parameters of the network are studied. The results show that the construction of "Sino-Mongolian and Russian economic corridor" faces a high investment risk. The key and sensitive investment risk factors are sorted out by reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis of Bayesian network. Finally, aiming at these risk factors. This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to prevent and avoid investment risks in the process of investment in the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor. The specific suggestions are: in view of the risks from the outside of the corridor, the three countries should treat the interference of big countries rationally. Strive to create a positive atmosphere of international public opinion; In view of the risks coming from the corridor, the three countries should strengthen political mutual trust, promote infrastructure construction, improve policies and regulations, closely communicate with the people, and train and integrate talents.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F125

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