“一带一路”中我国企业海外投资政治风险的邻国效应

发布时间：2018-02-12 11:39

  本文关键词： 对外直接投资 政治风险 空间溢出 邻国　出处：《经济管理》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文创新性地引入"邻国"因素,构建了反映对外直接投资与政治风险内在联系的理论模型,从理论层面上揭示了邻国政治风险对东道国吸引海外投资的影响。理论模型结果显示,厂商最大的政治风险防备策略水平与邻国政治风险溢出效应呈现正相关,即邻国政治风险溢出效应越大时,厂商所采取政治风险防备策略水平越高,厂商的利润越低。因此,评估我国企业海外投资政治风险必须同时考虑邻国政治风险的溢出效应。进一步地,选取2003—2015年中国对"一带一路"沿线17个国家海外投资的相关统计数据,建立同时包含东道国政治风险因素和邻国政治风险因素的空间计量模型。实证结果表明,东道国腐败控制对中国海外投资具有显著的抑制作用。如果考虑到邻国空间溢出效应的作用,邻国的腐败程度控制、内部冲突减弱、外部冲突减缓以及宗教氛围自由都会对东道国产生正向的溢出效应,即能促进中国企业增加对东道国的投资;而邻国的政局稳定性较高、法制水平健全、与东道国建交时间长期稳定以及种族冲突缓和则对东道国产生了显著的负向溢出效应,即促进更多中国企业到邻国投资,相应地减少对东道国投资规模。
[Abstract]:This paper innovatively introduces the "neighboring countries" factor, and constructs a theoretical model reflecting the internal relationship between foreign direct investment and political risk. The theoretical model shows that the maximum level of the firm's political risk prevention strategy is positively related to the spillover effect of the neighboring country's political risk. That is, the greater the spillover effect of political risk in neighbouring countries, the higher the level of political risk prevention strategy adopted by the firm, and the lower the profit of the firm. To assess the political risk of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment, we must also consider the spillover effect of political risk from neighboring countries. Furthermore, we should select the relevant statistics of China's overseas investment in 17 countries along "Belt and Road" from 2003 to 2015. Establish a spatial measurement model that includes the political risk factors of the host country and the political risk factors of the neighboring countries. The host country's corruption control has a significant inhibitory effect on China's overseas investment. Considering the spatial spillover effect of neighboring countries, the degree of corruption in neighboring countries is controlled, and internal conflicts are weakened. Both the mitigation of external conflicts and the freedom of religious atmosphere will have a positive spillover effect on the host country, that is, it can promote Chinese enterprises to increase their investment in the host country, while the political stability of neighbouring countries is relatively high, and the level of the rule of law is sound. The long-term stability of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the host country and the relaxation of the ethnic conflict have a significant negative spillover effect on the host country, that is, to promote more Chinese enterprises to invest in neighbouring countries, and to reduce the scale of investment in the host country accordingly.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F125;F279.2
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本文编号：1505545