贸易便利化对“一带一路”经济走廊经济效益的影响

发布时间：2018-03-12 12:12

本文选题：“一带一路”经济走廊　切入点：贸易便利化　出处：《国际贸易经济合作研究院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：贸易便利化是“一带一路”经济走廊建设的重点领域,也是世界贸易组织推进多边贸易谈判的重要议题,对于提升全球以及各国贸易规模、拉动全球经济增长有重大意义。“一带一路”建设的重要方向是打造六大经济走廊,即中蒙俄经济走廊、中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊、中国-中南半岛经济走廊、新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊、中巴经济走廊、孟中印缅经济走廊。这六条经济走廊共涵盖23个国家,经济总量与双边贸易额在全世界占比均达到1/3左右,然而,大多数国家的贸易便利化程度偏低,根据《全球贸易促进报告2016》六大经济走廊沿线国家中80%以上国家的海关程序指标处于全球中下水平,而影响海关程序指标的重要因素是通关时间,因此加强海关程序方面政策协调将成为未来推进经济走廊贸易便利化的重点。本文在新古典经济学指导下,运用可计算的一般均衡模型分析贸易便利化对“一带一路”经济走廊经济效益的影响,该模型得到了世界范围内经济学界的认可,是对“一带一路”经济走廊推进贸易便利化这一课题的积极探索,能够从学理上证明其可行性。本文也紧扣目前国内热点经贸问题,以铁路联通而形成的经济走廊为基础,分别分析促进贸易便利化对各条经济走廊的影响,并对各条经济走廊的成本收益进行对比,从而优选出经济效益相对高的经济走廊,以便为“一带一路”经济走廊建设提出政策选择和比较准确的决策建议。文章首先对贸易便利化的理论渊源进行梳理,从理论的角度诠释其对经济的积极影响。目前,各种非关税壁垒造成的交易成本占比较大,但难以估算,是阻碍国际贸易发展的一块隐形的绊脚石,本文利用世界经济论坛的《全球贸易促进报告2016》与《全球竞争力报告2016-2017》对各国海关现存问题进行分析,从海关程序负担、海关服务指数等5个分项对23个国家进行详细考察,并对海关通关时间进行分解,得出结论:单证合规、边界合规时间占比较高。本文采用全球贸易一般均衡模型(GTAP)深入分析降低通关时间的贸易便利化政策对各国经济效益的影响。模型结论表明,降低通关时间显著促进了各经济走廊沿线国家的经济增长(低、中、高贸易便利化方案下分别增长7.91%、16.41%、28.70%),提高了双边贸易额(低、中、高贸易便利化方案下进口分别增长14.37%、30.36%、54.43%;出口分别增长6.46%、13.54%、24.03%)与社会福利(低、中、高贸易便利化方案下分别增长284.68亿美元、600.77亿美元、1075.12亿美元)。在推进贸易便利化过程中,中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊获益最大,其各项经济指标改善状况位列所有经济走廊之首,成本收益比最佳,孟中印缅经济走廊、中蒙俄经济走廊次之,中巴经济走廊、新亚欧大陆桥的成本收益比相对略低。为了推进“一带一路”经济走廊贸易便利化,建议:第一,推进贸易便利化是一个相对长期的过程,各方应确立近期、中期和远期发展目标,制定有针对性的措施。第二,各国应以《贸易便利化协定》为依据制定本国的贸易便利化措施,在此基础上实现各国措施的有效对接。第三,“一带一路”经济走廊贸易便利化主要方向是简化海关程序,缩短通关时间,包括完善海关环节的硬件设施、优化海关管理制度、提高海关人员的素质。积极探索“一带一路”经济走廊贸易便利化新模式,例如建立电子信息平台,推行无纸化模式,使用标准化电子单证;打造“一站式平台”,依托互联网办理企业的检验检疫业务;简化海关检验手续,优化审批流程。第四,推广中国贸易便利化的模式和经验。例如,福建自由贸易试验区的检验检疫“源头管理、口岸验放”快速通关模式、广东省自由贸易试验区的“单一窗口”建设等。
[Abstract]:Trade facilitation is the key areas of The Belt and Road economic corridor construction, is also the world trade organization to promote an important topic of multilateral trade negotiations, for the promotion of global and national trade scale, is of great significance to promote global economic growth. "The Belt and Road construction the important direction is to create six economic corridors, namely, Mongolia and Russia the economic corridor, Chinese - Asia - West Economic Corridor, Chinese - Indochina economic corridor, the economic corridor of the new Eurasian Continental Bridge, Pakistan Economic Corridor BCIM economic corridor. The six economic corridors covering a total of 23 countries, the total economy and the bilateral trade volume in the world accounted for about 1/3, however. Trade facilitation level in most countries is low, according to the promotion of international trade customs procedures index report 2016> six economic corridors along the country in more than 80% countries in the world in the horizontal, and the shadow An important factor influencing index is the customs procedures of customs clearance, customs procedures so to strengthen policy coordination will become the future focus on promoting economic corridor trade facilitation. Based on the new classical economics under the guidance of the computable general equilibrium model analysis of the impact of trade facilitation on the "The Belt and Road economic corridor of economic benefits, the model the world economics is recognized, to actively explore the The Belt and Road economic corridor to promote trade facilitation of this topic, to prove its feasibility in theory. This paper is also closely linked to the domestic hot economic and trade issues, the railway Unicom formed economic corridor as the foundation, to promote trade analysis facilitation effect on each economic corridor, and compare the benefits and costs of the economic corridor, so as to optimize the economic benefits of a relatively high economic corridor, in order to The decision suggested policy choice for the "The Belt and Road economic corridor construction and more accurate. Firstly, the theoretical origin of trade facilitation and makes an interpretation of the positive impact on the economy from the perspective of theory. At present, all kinds of non - tariff barriers caused by the transaction costs accounted for relatively large, but it is difficult to estimate, is a invisible obstacles to the development of international trade, the world economic forum's Global trade promotion report 2016> and < < the global competitiveness report 2016-2017> to analyze the existing problems of national customs, customs procedures from the customs service burden, 5 sub index are investigated in 23 countries, and the customs clearance time of decomposition. Conclusion: the document of compliance, compliance time boundary is relatively high. This paper uses the general equilibrium model (GTAP) analysis to reduce trade facilitation political clearance time Influence of policy on the economic benefits of the countries. The results of the model show that reduced clearance time significantly promoted the economic corridor along the country's economic growth (low, high, trade facilitation schemes were increased by 7.91%, 16.41%, 28.70%), improve the bilateral trade volume (low, high, trade facilitation program imports respectively. An increase of 14.37%, 30.36%, 54.43% respectively; the export growth of 6.46%, 13.54%, 24.03%) and social welfare (low, high, trade facilitation schemes respectively increase of $28 billion 468 million, $60 billion 77 million, $107 billion 512 million). In the promotion of trade facilitation in the process of Chinese - Asia - West Economic Corridor most benefit, economic indexes to improve the situation in all the economic corridor of the first, cost income ratio and the economic corridor BCIM economic corridor, Mongolia and Russia in the second, Pakistan Economic Corridor, costs and benefits of the new Eurasian Continental Bridge is slightly lower than the relative. In order to promote" The Belt and Road economic corridor of trade facilitation recommendations: first, to promote trade facilitation is a relatively long process, the parties should be established recently, medium-term and long-term development goals, to develop targeted measures. Second, countries should be based on "trade facilitation agreement" as the basis of trade facilitation measures for the country the implementation of effective docking national measures on this basis. Third, "The Belt and Road economic corridor of trade facilitation is the main direction of the simplification of customs procedures, improve customs clearance time shortened, including link hardware facilities, optimize the customs management system, improve the quality of personnel. Actively explore the" The Belt and Road economic corridor the new mode of trade facilitation, such as the establishment of electronic information platform, implementation of paperless mode, the use of standardized electronic documents; to create a one-stop platform, relying on the Internet for the inspection and quarantine business enterprise; Simplify the procedures of customs inspection, the approval process optimization. Fourth, promote the China trade facilitation model and experience. For example, the source management of inspection and Quarantine "Fujian Free Trade Zone, port clearance, customs clearance mode, Guangdong Free Trade Zone, the construction of" single window ".

【学位授予单位】：国际贸易经济合作研究院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F742

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