人民币汇率变动对国际收支的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 18:19

  本文选题：人民币汇率　切入点：国际收支　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从人民币在去年成为SDR的一份子之后,人民币在国际上就逐渐成为了焦点,当然随着亚投行和一带一路的发展,更是促进了我国与国外的经济和政治上的往来,汇率也成为了衡量我国人民币价值的一个指标,也就是说汇率的变动对于我国与国外的贸易都产生了很重要的影响,在国际收支上也成为了一个很关键的因素。近年来,很多学者也对人民币汇率的变动对国际收支的影响进行研究,但他们主要把对外贸易等同于国际收支,而忽略了对外商投资的影响,为了提高本文研究的实际意义,首先不仅从质上进行分析,而且通过建立模型的形式进行量的分析,为了使数据更加具有准确性,在数据的选择上要求比较高,选取2008年到2016年第一季度的数据。具体内容如下:(1)本文陈述了国内外关于汇率的变动对国际贸易和FDI影响的研究进展。由于国际收支主要包括经常项目和资本项目,而经常项目主要包括国际贸易,资本项目主要对外直接投资(FDI)。(2)本文总结已有学者对国际收支相关理论基础上,重要介绍了国际贸易和FDI的相关理论,例如供求理论、利率平价理论等。(3)通过分析国家外汇管理局的相关数据,阐述了人民币汇率与国际收支的相关性分析,以及国际收支的现状,这一部分的分析也为了下面的实证分析做铺垫。(4)对人民币汇率变动对国际收支的影响进行实证分析,分别利用格兰杰检验、协整分析等方法对各个变量之间的关系进行分析和研究。(5)通过在质和量上进行分析它们之间的关系,再结合现实生活中的实际情况,进而提出采取何种措施和建议来达到国际收支的平衡。
[Abstract]:Since the yuan has become a part of SDR in the last year, the RMB is becoming the focus of course, with the development of the Asian investment bank and The Belt and Road, more is to promote the Chinese and foreign economic and political exchanges, the exchange rate has become a measure of China's RMB index value, also is said to have had a significant impact on trade exchange rate for China and other countries, in the balance of payments has become a very important factor. In recent years, many research scholars on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the international balance of payments, but they mainly to foreign trade is equivalent to the balance of payments, while ignoring the impact of foreign investment, in order to improve the practical significance of this study, first, not only from the qualitative analysis and quantity analysis through the establishment of model, in order to make the data more accurate And in the choice of data requirements are relatively high, from 2008 to the first quarter of 2016 data. The specific contents are as follows: (1) this paper describes the research progress of the effects of changes on the exchange rate at home and abroad on international trade and FDI. The international balance of payments including current account and capital account, while the current account includes international trade. Capital projects mainly foreign direct investment (FDI). (2) this paper summarizes the scholars of international payments on the basis of relevant theories, introduces the related theory of international trade and FDI, such as the theory of supply and demand, the interest rate parity theory. (3) through the relevant data analysis of the State Administration of foreign exchange, expounds the correlation analysis of RMB the exchange rate and the international balance of payments, as well as the current situation of international payments, this part also to pave the way for the following empirical analysis. (4) the empirical impact of RMB exchange rate on China's balance of payments 鍒嗘瀽,鍒嗗埆鍒╃敤鏍煎叞鏉版��楠，

本文编号：1607597