阿富汗安全形势及其对丝绸之路经济带的影响

发布时间：2018-03-29 03:00

本文选题：阿富汗　切入点：塔利班　出处：《南亚研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：美国增兵、政局隐患、经济困难、塔利班等因素将继续影响阿富汗的安全形势,使其短期内难以取得根本性的好转,但也不大可能出现安全形势的急剧恶化。稳定的阿富汗有利于丝绸之路经济带的建设,但即使是安全形势相对恶化,阿富汗对丝绸之路经济带的影响也是有限的,不应夸大这种影响。因为阿富汗不是丝绸之路经济带的枢纽或核心节点,阿富汗安全形势对丝绸之路经济带建设的影响主要是通过影响中亚来实现的,是间接的、有限的。中国目前正在更积极地参与阿富汗事务,但也应更加谨慎,避免过度卷入。
[Abstract]:The increase in US troops, political risks, economic difficulties, Taliban and other factors will continue to affect the security situation in Afghanistan and make it difficult to make a fundamental improvement in the short term. But it is unlikely that there will be a sharp deterioration of the security situation. A stable Afghanistan will be conducive to the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, but even if the security situation is relatively deteriorating, Afghanistan's influence on the Silk Road Economic Belt will be limited. This impact should not be exaggerated... Because Afghanistan is not the hub or core node of the Silk Road economic belt, and the impact of the security situation in Afghanistan on the construction of the Silk Road economic belt is mainly realized through its influence on Central Asia and is indirect. China is now more actively involved in Afghanistan, but should also be more cautious and avoid excessive involvement.
【作者单位】：兰州大学管理学院;兰州大学
【基金】：2015年国家社科基金项目“中南亚地区的安全观与安全合作机制研究”(项目编号15XGJ001) 2017年“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助”项目(项目编号:17LZUJBWZX017)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D815.4;F114.4

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