中国与湄公河流域国家贸易状况及贸易潜力分析

发布时间：2018-04-12 00:02

本文选题：澜沧江-湄公河合作机制 + 引力模型　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2015年11月12日“澜沧江-湄公河合作”机制(以下简称“澜湄合作”)首次外长会在云南景洪举行。中国、泰国、老挝、柬埔寨、越南、缅甸六国外长就进一步加强澜湄国家合作展开深入探讨,并达成广泛共识,一致同意正式启动澜湄合作进程,宣布“澜湄合作”机制正式建立。在全球经济下行的压力下,澜沧江-湄公河流域6国,近几年一直保持着良好的经济发展势头,相互间的贸易依存度也在不断攀升。澜湄次区域相较于我国周边国家而言,历史合作成果显著,这主要得益于此前大湄公河次区域(GMS)合作机制的有效运行。此区域具有更好的合作基础和更大的市场需求,区域风险小(如领土争端、恐怖袭击等),“一带一路”所倡导的政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通和民心相通,在此区域拥有良好的基础。根据澜湄合作机制首先实施的一批“早期收获”项目,中国正计划向澜湄次区域提供更多的资金和技术支持,在此区域经济援助中发挥重要作用,促进湄公河流域各国经济和社会的快速发展。本文感兴趣的是中国与湄公河流域国家贸易发展现状、各国商品贸易结构、各国服务贸易竞争力、中国对湄公河流域国家的FDI状况,以及中国与湄公河流域各国双边贸易的影响因素。以期借助“一带一路”战略的实施及“澜湄合作”机制成立带来的发展契机,通过分析中国与湄公河流域国家贸易状况,揭示发展趋势和问题所在,并提出政策建议,为澜湄次区域经济合作进一步发展做出贡献。本文从理论和实证两个方面梳理了有关中国与湄公河流域国家双边贸易的文献,分析双边贸易结构的特点和双边贸易中的影响因素。再此基础上构建中国与湄公河流域国家双边贸易引力模型,选取2001-2015年的面板数据,引入经济规模(用双边国内生产总值的乘积表示)、地理距离、中国对湄公河流域国家FDI作为解释变量,引入中国与湄公河流域国家是否接壤为虚拟变量,利用Eviews 6.0软件对模型进行回归分析,并根据回归结果剔除系数不显著的虚拟变量,进行二次回归检验。虚拟变量系数不显著,可能是中国与泰国、柬埔寨虽不接壤,但较与中国接壤的缅甸、老挝、越南而言距离差距并不大。二次回归结果显示经济规模和FDI对双边贸易有促进作用,地理距离反映了贸易的运输成本,对双边贸易有抑制作用。并根据引力模型回归方程对中国与湄公河流域国家的贸易潜力进行了预测,预测结果显示中国与湄公河流域国家的贸易潜力属于潜力拓展型。最后根据实证研究结果,提出对加强中国与湄公河流域国家双边贸易合作的相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:On November 12, 2015, the "Lancang-Mekong Cooperation" mechanism (hereinafter referred to as "Lan Mei Cooperation") was held in Jinghong, Yunnan Province.The Foreign Ministers of China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Myanmar launched in-depth discussions on further strengthening cooperation among the Lanmae countries, reached a broad consensus, and unanimously agreed to formally launch the Lanmae cooperation process.It was announced that the "Lan Mei cooperation" mechanism had been formally established.Under the pressure of the global economic downturn, the Lancang-Mekong River basin six countries have maintained a good economic development momentum in recent years, mutual trade dependence is also rising.Compared with the neighboring countries of China, the historical cooperation has achieved remarkable results, which is mainly due to the effective operation of the GMS cooperation mechanism in the Greater Mekong Subregion.The region has a better foundation for cooperation and greater market demand, with less risk in the region (such as territorial disputes, terrorist attacks, etc.), policy communication advocated by "Belt and Road", connectivity of facilities, smooth trade, financing and popular support,Have a good base in this area.According to the first batch of "early harvest" projects implemented by the Lanmae Cooperation Mechanism, China is planning to provide more financial and technical support to the Lancang sub-region to play an important role in economic assistance in the region.To promote the rapid economic and social development of the Mekong River basin countries.This article is interested in the current situation of trade development between China and the Mekong basin countries, the commodity trade structure of each country, the competitiveness of each country's trade in services, and China's FDI status of the Mekong basin countries.And the influence factors of bilateral trade between China and Mekong basin countries.With the help of the implementation of "Belt and Road" strategy and the opportunity of development brought by the establishment of "Lan Mei" cooperation mechanism, through the analysis of the trade situation between China and the countries in the Mekong River Basin, the development trend and problems are revealed, and policy recommendations are put forward.To contribute to the further development of economic cooperation in the Lanmae sub-region.This paper reviews the literature on bilateral trade between China and Mekong River Basin countries from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and analyzes the characteristics of bilateral trade structure and the influencing factors in bilateral trade.On this basis, the bilateral trade gravity model between China and Mekong River Basin countries is constructed, and the panel data from 2001 to 2015 are selected to introduce the economic scale (expressed by the product of bilateral gross domestic product, geographical distance).As an explanatory variable, China introduces whether China and the Mekong basin countries are bordering on each other as virtual variables. The regression analysis of the model is carried out by using Eviews 6.0 software, and the fictitious variables whose coefficients are not significant are eliminated according to the regression results.A quadratic regression test was carried out.The fictitious variable coefficient is not significant, it may be that China and Thailand, Cambodia is not bordering on the border, but the border with China Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, the distance between the gap is not much.The results of quadratic regression show that economic scale and FDI can promote bilateral trade, geographical distance reflects the transport cost of trade, and it can inhibit bilateral trade.According to the regression equation of gravity model, the trade potential between China and Mekong basin countries is predicted. The results show that the trade potential between China and Mekong basin countries is potential-expanding.Finally, according to the results of empirical research, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for strengthening bilateral trade cooperation between China and Mekong River Basin countries.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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