中韩自贸协定对两国GDP经济效应的影响

发布时间：2018-05-02 10:12

本文选题：中韩自贸协定 + GDP经济效应　；参考：《财经科学》2017年10期

【摘要】：本文通过分析GTAP模型,指出了现有方法在测度FTA经济效应上的缺陷:(1)经济失衡使得GTAP模型的模拟结果与真实情况可能存在较大差异;(2)GTAP模型比较复杂,模型设定错误可能对均衡解产生难以估量的影响;(3)GTAP模型的均衡解不连续,不利于经济效应分析。为克服这些缺陷,本文在GTAP模型的基础上建立了估计GDP对关税弹性的计量模型,并据此测度了中韩自贸协定对两国GDP的经济效应。实证结果表明:若中韩按照自贸协定进行关税削减且在削减过渡期内两国进口依存度保持现有水平不变,则中韩自贸协定将在二十年关税削减过渡期内带动中国GDP平均每年增长0.25%,带动韩国GDP平均每年增长0.63%。由本文的分析过程和测度结果可以得出:(1)自贸协定经济效应的大小取决于签订方之间的贸易依存度以及自贸协定的关税削减幅度;(2)贸易自由化是国际贸易发展的长期趋势,中国应发挥中韩自贸区的示范效应并以此推动"一带一路"倡议;(3)韩国在中韩自贸协定中获益巨大,选择"萨德"将损失惨重。
[Abstract]:By analyzing the GTAP model, this paper points out the defects of the existing methods in measuring the economic effects of FTA. (1) the economic imbalance makes the simulation results of the GTAP model quite different from the real situation, and the GTAP model is quite complex. The error of model setting may have inestimable influence on equilibrium solution. The equilibrium solution of GTAP model is not continuous, which is unfavorable to economic effect analysis. In order to overcome these shortcomings, this paper establishes an econometric model for estimating the tariff elasticity of GDP on the basis of GTAP model, and measures the economic effects of the FTA on the GDP of both countries. The empirical results show that if China and South Korea make tariff cuts in accordance with the FTA and the import dependence of the two countries remains unchanged during the transition period, The China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement will boost China's GDP by an average of 0.25 per year during the 20-year tariff reduction transition period, while South Korea's GDP will increase by an average of 0.63 per year. From the analysis and measurement results of this paper, it can be concluded that the economic effect of FTA depends on the degree of trade dependence between the signatories and the tariff reduction extent of the FTA. (2) the liberalization of trade is a long-term trend of the development of international trade. China should give play to the demonstration effect of China-South Korea Free Trade Zone and promote "Belt and Road" initiative in order to promote the "Belt and Road" initiative. South Korea has greatly benefited from the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, and the choice of "THAAD" will be a heavy loss.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“一带一路相关国家贸易竞争与互补关系研究”(16ZDA039)
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.126

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