全球价值链、贸易增长“失速”与中国对策

发布时间：2018-05-06 21:26

本文选题：货物出口 + 贸易衰退　；参考：《国际商务研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：通过对比G20经济体的货物出口增速与其GDP增速之间的差距,本文发现2012年后世界主要经济体货物出口增速大多低于其GDP增速,此轮出口增长"失速"并非是中国特例,而是全球性现象。本文从全球价值链分工的视角分析了造成此轮全球性出口增长"失速"的主要原因,发现近年来全球价值链分工模式出现的"天花板"现象、发展中经济体价值链分工位置升级和国内价值链的延伸以及发达经济体国内价值链的收缩都会导致世界贸易规模萎缩。本文认为,以"一带一路"战略为平台扩张全球价值链分工网络的外部空间和以自贸区战略为依托推进中国对外开放水平由"边境上"向"边境内"深化,是中国应对出口增速下降可能的对策思路。
[Abstract]:By comparing the gap between the growth rate of goods exports and the growth rate of GDP of the G20 economies, this paper finds that the growth rate of goods exports of the major economies in the world after 2012 is mostly lower than its GDP growth rate, and the "stall" of this round of export growth is not a special case of China. It's a global phenomenon. From the perspective of global value chain division, this paper analyzes the main reasons for the "stall" of this round of global export growth, and finds out the "ceiling" phenomenon of the global value chain division pattern in recent years. The upgrading of the value chain and the extension of the domestic value chain in the developing economies and the contraction of the domestic value chain in the developed economies will cause the scale of world trade to shrink. This paper holds that the external space of expanding the global value chain division network based on Belt and Road's strategy and the free trade zone's strategy promote China's opening to the outside world from the "border" to "inside the border". It is China's possible response to the decline in export growth.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;南京大学国际经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球经济深度调整背景下我国外贸增速变化机理及对策研究”(项目编号:16AJY018)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F742

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